• by Paul Gough , February 13, 2003

At least one network is telling analysts that an invasion of Iraq is going to happen and it’s prepared for the advertising hit.

Viacom President/COO Mel Karmazin told analysts that the company has projected costs and advertising losses at CBS and its impact on the corporate bottom line. He declined to discuss specifics.

“We have anticipated in guidance that there will be a war in Iraq. We have budgeted for it, he said. No dollar amounts were released.

“We’ve assumed that there will be a war that might start in the middle of the afternoon because of the time difference with Iraq, maybe go for a couple of days of nonstop coverage and obviously continue to stay on top of it with reports but not wall-to-wall coverage [after the first few days],” Karmazin said.

CBS factored in its experience during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, plus assumed there would be a loss of ad revenue not only on the TV network but in the owned-and-operated TV stations and Infinity Broadcasting’s all-news radio stations.

“I don’t want to give you a sense that says that if the war lasts for three weeks instead of two weeks that there’s a change in the number. We’re just going to have to monitor it. Obviously, it would be naïve of us to give you guidance and not assume there was going to be a war, because right now it’s the likelihood unfortunately that there will be,” Karmazin said.

CBS isn’t alone among the broadcast or cable networks in being affected by a possible war, both in coverage and advertising. All the networks would feel the pain.

Fox, which doesn’t have its own network news department or nightly national news program, has relied in the past on simulcasting Fox News Channel coverage. That’s what Fox did in the days after Sept. 11 and again Feb. 1 when the space shuttle Columbia crashed.

Spokesman Scott Grogin said that while there’s been discussions and plans on coverage, it’s too early to say for certain how the network would respond.

“It all depends on the individual event … We have no idea what direction the coverage will take,” Grogin said, noting that no one knows what will happen in Iraq or with Al-Queda.

A WB spokesman said the network wasn’t ready to discuss plans.