• by Jim Meskauskas , September 4, 2003

Ah, it is good to be home.

My time in Mexico was so unbelievably relaxing, there was a point when I couldn't remember where my offices were or what my house keys looked like. After a couple of days of just lying in a chaise lounge starting at the sky and the clouds, my brain stopped turning over things like lame ad unit sizes or unresponsive clients or improvements I need to make in my apartment. Within a relatively short period of time I successfully made the transition to just... thinking about the sky and the clouds. It wasn't long afterwards that I simply stopped thinking at all.

But it is good to be home after a trip like that and get back into the regular rhythms my life, refreshed and recharged.

Among the many beats that make up my regular rhythms are the newsletters and discussion boards which I have been away from while away on vacation. Over the last few days, I've been catching up with them, and I must say, I like what I see.

And what I see is recovery.

The signs I take for being omens of an improving business climate are different than the typical totems of economics. The barometer I use in this business consists of party invites and job postings.

Upon my return, I found in both my email inbox and my terrestrial mailbox several invitations to industry function parties. And they aren't being held at some local pub. These events are scheduled at some fairly serious venues throughout the city and, in some cases, throughout the country.

Also in abundance were "help wanted" postings to industry discussion lists. It has been a long time since I've seen so much talent being looked for by so many different companies. I've seen more and more postings for business development and sales positions for publishers, research vendors, and technology providers.

This is a sure sign that internal corporate prognosticators have determined that there is business to be mined and it is worth the cost of hiring to get that done. With a growing population of sellers, it is only a matter of time before there is going to have to be some staffing up for those doing the buying.

Here at our shop, in the last month we have gone from being busy to being BUSY. I have heard compatriots at other shops say they're experiencing the same thing. Some of this can be chalked up to seasonality: the summer is over and Q4 planning and buying is kicking into high gear. But some of it really seems to be new work. Companies are starting to spend on advertising again.

I've always liked to say that the advertising industry is kind of like the Marines of economies, only inverted: they are the first out and the last in when it comes to economic downturns and recoveries. Ad agencies have been around for a long time and have experienced many economic cycles. And they almost always behave the exact same way. And it goes something like this: Client spending goes down. Agency holds on to staff in the hopes that it is only temporary. Once it is obvious that the downturn in spending is going to be longer term, staff starts to get cut. And cut. And cut. Until only the bones of the skeleton are left working, and those doing the work, work themselves to the bone. Slowly, spending starts to come back or a new client spending just a little money comes into the shop. The agency continues to operate with the same staff, as it has seen just how much it can do with existing resources. And then more new business comes in the door, and existing clients start to spend again. The agency continues to not hire. Finally, when those who are still working can barely work any longer and start looking to jump to other agencies that have started to hire again, the agency starts to hire again.

According to the wonks and pundits who comment on things like economics, politics, and the like, the US economy has been recovering for some time now. Depending on political allegiances, some have called it a "jobless recovery." But something few realize and even fewer think about is that labor markets follow economic conditions, they do not reflect them. So, it is just a matter of time before agencies start picking up staff again to keep up with the work they are now coming into.

I hope I don't sound overly optimistic, but it looks to me like our biz is on the mend and ready to end its convalescence. And that is as good a reason as any to have a party.