• by December 1, 2003

PRIMETIME'S STILL PRIME -- Despite all the talk and stories about what a lousy season the major broadcast networks are having, 2003-04 is proving to be an especially strong one. Well sure, we are seeing some erratic viewing patterns and some significant declines in primetime viewing among young adults, but much of that could have - indeed, should have - been expected based on the methodological improvements that were instituted by Nielsen Media Research this season. Is it just the Riff, or does anyone else remember the two consecutive years of side-by-side data Nielsen shared with the industry to prepare for the before-and-after effects of its new sample weighting scheme? The reality is that the measurement of primetime viewing is likely more accurate than it has been in years - and possibly ever. That aside, the networks really aren't doing all that bad. "With the exception of NBC, all of the major networks are either up or stable," Steve Sternberg, the TV audience guru at Magna Global USA, tells the Riff.

Meanwhile, new storm clouds appear to be forming over the network advertising marketplace, ostensibly because of the continued erosion of primetime audience delivery. Even if it were true that network GRPs have eroded, the Riff sees no imminent sign of erosion in demand for network advertising inventory. In fact, we continue to believe the opposite is true: the smaller the supply of network GRPs, the more desperate big advertisers and agencies will be to buy them. And if that were true during last spring's 2003-04 upfront buying season, it continues to be true now and into next year's Olympics/presidential election-fueled frenzy. Okay, so fourth quarter scatter sales were a slog and few advertisers are rushing the first quarter scatter marketplace. But that once again should have been expected based on the heavy sell-out levels and fat budget allocations made during the upfront. Major advertisers and agencies simply anticipated the high demand for network inventory this season and adjusted for it ahead of time, during the upfront. That's the way upfront's are supposed to work. Despite the vultures hovering over the network marketplace, the networks have little need to panic - at least until the 2004-05 upfront, when they face a tougher ad sales proposition in a post-Olympics/election year environment.