• by Michael Shields , June 8, 2004

For magazines, the long national ad-revenue nightmare may be over. For one month, anyway. After ten consecutive months of ad page erosion, the major consumer magazines tracked by the Publishers Information Bureau recorded a gain in May--rising 4.8 percent over May 2003, according to estimates released Tuesday by the Magazine Publishers of America.

Reported advertising revenues rose 12.8 percent--marking the strongest advertising month so far this year, ending a 10-month streak of declines, and possibly topping off a lousy few years for the business, which had yet to feel the effects of a resurgent ad market.

Ellen Oppenheim, executive vice president-chief marketing officer of the MPA, said that May is no fluke, but is part of an improving progression of advertising trends for magazine publishers, which appear to have hit bottom and are now moving back up.

"If you look at the trend over the course of this year, even while people have been talking about categories and books being down, the declines have been 0.3 percent, 0.5 percent," said Oppenheim, noting: "Overall, since March, you are seeing steady improvement. You shouldn't look at one individual month, but certainly in the last few months you are seeing improvement."

The travel and the finance ad categories provided the biggest boosts in May, with each posting to the business a 26 percent gain in pages for the month.

"The stock market is doing better, and finance is doing better," noted Oppenheim. As for travel: "In the past we have seen this combination of improved consumer confidence, particularly with regards to safety, and a pickup in travel," she said.

In fact, six of the 12 major advertising categories recorded both page and dollar increases, with double-digit page and revenue gains recorded by the financial, insurance, and real estate; food and food products; media and advertising; and public transportation, hotels, and resorts categories.

Total May ad revenue closed at $1,894,854,601, with ad pages totaling 21,492.7. For the year, revenue is up 8 percent at nearly $7.7 billion (ad pages are basically flat).

Although Oppenheim said the MPA remains cautiously optimistic, she cautioned that economic recoveries and downturns are not typically smooth in nature. "Economic recoveries are not a straight line (indicating a start and stop pattern)," she said. "You see a jagged chart. Plus, magazines tend to lag behind other media."

Magazines may have also been too timid in stating their case against other media--particularly TV--according to Rebecca McPheters, president of magazine consultancy McPheters and Co.

"Publishers have been beat up for so long that I think they have been less effective in their sales efforts," she said. "They have been afraid to confront advertisers with hard data."

Still, McPheters was glad to hear about the positive data, while remaining cautiously optimistic. "That is the best news we've had in a long time," she said. "But one month does not a trend make."