• by Wendy Davis  @wendyndavis, January 3, 2005

The Internet's reputation as the Wild West of media might be fading, but the online world is not yet fully regulated--or at least not as regulated as it will be by the end of 2005, say industry experts. What, specifically, does 2005 have in store for the Web? Here are some predictions:

Spyware will continue to be on the legislative agenda.

Expect elected officials to come up with new, narrowly drafted proposals, said Dave Morgan, president of the behavioral targeting firm Tacoda Systems, Inc. Morgan joined lobbying efforts opposing the sweeping "Spy Act," which passed in the House of Representatives in October by a vote of 399 to 1. Morgan added that he believed the legislation's broad language--which might have affected every marketer who uses cookies--was the result of "poor drafting," rather than a deliberate attempt to subject companies who use cookies to tighter regulation.

Consultant Alan Chapell agrees that spyware--and adware--will again be on the public agenda. "In 2005, we're going to get much more solid definitions of adware and spyware," he predicted.

Online publishers may increase censorship of ads.

"In traditional media, there's a lot of self-regulation," said Morgan. But in the online world, most publishers only turn down ads that clearly have consequences--porn, for example, if children tend to visit the site, or gambling, in some cases. But, charged Morgan, "lots of advertisers have been happy to support spyware." Look for that situation to change next year, he predicted.

Courts will continue to struggle to interpret anti-spam laws.

At the end of last year, a New York federal judge put the brakes on a plea bargain in a case involving conspiracy to spam, saying he wasn't convinced that the defendant, ex-AOL employee Jason Smathers, actually broke any laws. The case is on hold for further research.

Also in December, a Maryland judge threw out a lawsuit against an alleged spammer, ruling that the state's anti-spam law placed an undue burden on federal interstate commerce.

Look for legal issues regarding commercial e-mail to continue to play out in the courts--although, perhaps, by the end of the year, a consensus will emerge in the courts. "In the next 12 to 18 months, we will begin to obtain some clarity," predicted Chapell. "I expect to see some kind of resolution to these issues in the near future."

Google and other search engines will face new challenges to trademark bidding policies.

Last month, Google fended off insurance company Geico, which had sued over Google's practice of allowing other companies to pay to appear in search results when consumers queried about Geico. But Google still faces other legal challenges to its system.

For one thing, another similar lawsuit by American Blind still awaits Google. Even more importantly, the charge was dismissed because Geico didn't prove that consumers were confused--not because the judge didn't accept Geico's theory. In fact, with different evidence of confusion, the case could have gone in Geico's favor.

If American Blind can learn from Geico's mistake, American Blind could still bring down Google in court.