• by David Kaplan , March 11, 2005

The major studios kicked off their 2005-06 upfront sales effort Thursday morning unveiling a series of statistics showing the TV medium's continued growth in both audience and revenue, its low-clutter environment, and creative branded entertainment opportunities--but some media buyers say they'll need more convincing.

Describing "the state of syndication," during his opening remarks at the Syndicated Network Television Association's so-called SNTA Day, association President Mitch Burg, pointed to syndication's 2004 revenue rise to $3.9 billion--a 16 percent increase over 2003.

"Our viewership was up 5.2 percent, compared to network's viewership rise of 0.4 percent, while cable was actually down 1.4 percent," Burg said. "Any way you look at it, syndication is simply more attractive."

Still, some media buyers believe that syndication has either reached a plateau this year or actually may see some declines.

"Syndication's ratings overall have been pretty stable and consistent the last few years, despite the fractionalization of the marketplace," said Brad Adgate, senior vice president-director of research for Horizon Media. "The problem for syndication is that there don't seem to be many good time periods left. The 'Access Hollywood's, The 'Judge Judy's, The Oprah's on down all have a lock on the best time slots, so it's difficult to premiere a new show."

While some shows have received a good deal of anticipation from media buyers--particularly the new Tyra Banks talk show, which some say they expect to be another "Ellen," referring to the success of comedian Ellen DeGeneres. Another is a new court show--incidentally, Burg noted that syndicated court shows' viewership rose 9.1 percent in 2004 over 2003--based on a Hispanic judge.

"A few years ago, judge shows were on the wane somewhat, because like any trend, one type of show becomes very successful and then it gets copied over and over and the audience's taste for it becomes diluted," Adgate said. "But I think it's smart to unveil a Hispanic judge show, since the surfeit of legal battle shows have gone away years ago. It's an especially good time, given the greater awareness of the Hispanic marketplace."

But that probably won't provide much of a boost to syndication, said Mike Drexler, CEO of Optimedia USA.

"There's not much to lift the syndication marketplace this year," Drexler said. "Syndication usually serves as a buffer between price increases in broadcast and cable, and that's not the case this year. More money is going to shift to cable, since they have more original programs and a lot more success in attracting greater numbers of viewers. Furthermore, there don't seem to be any particular breakout hits in syndication. I just think they're going to suffer a bit this year because of alternative marketplaces."

Burg dismissed the naysaying.

"When it comes to attracting younger viwers--people who shop, people who pay attention to trends--syndication beats the alternatives," Burg said. "When it comes to reduced clutter, higher ratings and quality programs, syndication is consistently strong," he added.

Burg said that the two- to three-day lead time, which allows quick changes in ads, also should make syndication more attractive to marketers.