• by elizabeth , Bill Tancer , June 2, 2005

I was just reflecting on my choice of "demo" words over my career working in search. What's a demo word, you ask? When demonstrating a search, most of us have picked certain words we use to execute a search and demo our service. Why? Because we've become familiar with the results, it's easy to gauge differences across engines, and using the same term across several engines helps you to understand differences.

Over the years, my demo words have evolved from "car" to "automobile," "Waterford Crystal," to my latest "prom dress."

You might think that "prom dress" is a strange choice of (demo) words for a 39-year-old self-professed numbers guy (and you'd be in good company). Serendipity led me to the use of this term as an excellent demonstration of the importance of timing in search marketing. While demonstrating competitive intelligence to a prospective client in the apparel business, I charted several terms over the course of the year. When the prospect suggested that we chart "prom dress," the results stunned us both.

Three things to know about timing

Don't assume that your timing equals your customer's timing.

With most proms occurring in the month of May, we assumed that there would be an increase in searches on the term "prom dress" during April. The actual volume of searches over time told an entirely different story; that searches on the term occur as early as mid-January. Another surprise is that there is a minor spike that occurs in late November. (A trusted colleague informs me that this is most likely due to searches for holiday ball dresses). Without this timing data, it's very likely that we could have missed out on over half of the search volume on "prom dress" by relying on a faulty assumption. Over the years I've found numerous examples of searches that peak before I would have expected them to. The usual culprit is either the consumer's use of a substitute search, such as "prom dress" for "holiday gown," or that a seasonal trend peaks far in advance of the time we would have anticipated.

Historical Search Data Can be Used to Predict Future Behavior

We have found over time that both Web and search traffic patterns repeat themselves year-over-year. Armed with our knowledge of "prom dress" searches from this year, we are well-prepared to predict future volume and plan our search marketing campaign accordingly.

Consider the case of "dieting" versus "treadmill" searches. If our goal is to capitalize on our short-lived New Year's resolution of dieting, we should launch our search campaign the second week of December, and should expect significant volume through the second week of January. How do I know that? Well, barring any world events that affect dieting, we would be correct in assuming that 2006 should have a pattern similar to 2005. Interestingly, treadmills show a similar resolution pattern, but unlike dieting, searches on this term trail off into spring and summer, which brings us to our third point.

Search Trends Can Inform Product/Service Timing Decisions

We think of search primarily as a marketing vehicle for our client or business, when in reality search volume can work both ways, providing us with data to inform our product or content mix. The volume of search terms on particular goods or services can provide unparalleled insight into consumer demand. One of the hottest battles waging in consumer electronics this year is one that I hold very near and dear--plasma versus LCD TVs. In 2004, Plasma TVs were the darling of the audio/video industry. However, with the decrease in price, larger screen size, and other advantages of LCD televisions, the demand gap between the two technologies has been narrowing. As an electronics etailer, by examining search term data, we can visualize how the gap has narrowed, and make informed product mix decisions based on that.

The bottom line is that as growth of new Internet users slows, and the number of online businesses accelerates, we need any edge to stay ahead of the competition. As the above data demonstrates, whether you are selling televisions, health products, or even prom dresses, timing IS everything.