Happy New Year! Now that you're back at work with your nose to the grindstone again, I'll deliver those predictions I promised in my
last column. I did okay with last year's predictions, but now it's time to gaze into the crystal
ball for 2006.
Here are a few prognostications for ya:
- Satellite radio will be proclaimed healthy. At some point in 2006, Sirius will announce that it has
garnered enough incremental subscribers to pay for the Howard Stern deal. XM will grow even more aggressively. Accordingly, satellite will struggle with how to integrate more commercials in 2006.
Other than subscriber growth, satellite's biggest challenge in 2006 will be to avoid screwing up the user experience.
- Rich media companies will just squeak by. More agencies and
advertisers will get smarter about rich media in 2006, which means less business for many third-party rich media companies. In fact, the only thing that will keep many of these companies afloat in
2006 will be the general uptick in online media spending. You may see some consolidation during this year, with rich media companies buying one another so as to present a more attractive acquisition
target. Whatever the case may be, the writing will be on the wall for many of these companies at the end of 2006, and you will see rich media companies either move away from the incremental CPM
business model or start to die.
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- Podcasts will find additional distribution methods. Realizing that subscribing to podcasts is more confusing than it ought to be, podcasters will
seek out other venues for their content. Aggregators will lock on to popular podcasts and distribute them through online or satellite radio. By the end of 2006, we will be well on our way to making
podcasts ubiquitous, mostly through making them easier to access. Satellite radio companies in particular will look to benefit from the popularity of podcasts.
- The online advertising
industry will fight the Click War and the Branding War all over again. An influx of advertisers and additional online marketing spending will mean explaining to the "new money" that clicks aren't
everything. The battle will be waged once again. Similarly, we will all re-fight the Branding War, with advertisers questioning the Internet's ability to brand and the agencies and sellers scratching
their heads and wondering why the advertisers don't "get it." The big "ah-ha!" moment will come when agencies and sellers realize many advertisers think of branding as a broadcast concept and not an
interactive one. Forward-thinkers will concentrate on how to quantify and qualify online interaction with customers.
- E-mail will deflect criticism of its accountability.
Advertisers will call into question whether many of their outbound e-mails and newsletter sponsorships are actually making it to people's inboxes. The only thing that will prevent an e-mail
advertising meltdown in 2006 will be the upcoming shortage of available advertising inventory. The practice of guaranteeing mailings but not deliveries will solidify as the preferred model. But e-mail
isn't completely off the hook. Guaranteed mailings versus guaranteed deliveries will be a big issue during the next down cycle.
- Mobile entertainment will be the big concept. 2006
will mark the year that media and technology companies really begin the fight for consumers' attention during morning and afternoon drive and the other times consumers are away from both home and
work. Satellite and terrestrial radio are, of course, big stakeholders. But 2006 will see a lot more options for people looking to be entertained during their commute and their goings-about-town.
Companies like Sling Media will be hard at work enabling people to maintain entertainment libraries at home that can be consumed anywhere.
And my big "Out on a Limb" Prediction for
2006...
A label-less artist will make a big splash in 2006 At some point during 2006, someone like you and me, armed with only a home computer (and perhaps a few musical instruments)
will create a piece of music that will become popular without the support of a record label. It could be someone's mash-up, a mobile ringtone, or an original piece of music created with a Mac and a
copy of GarageBand. Whatever it is, it will be created at home and made popular by viral means and by distribution in alternative channels (i.e.--other than MTV and major label marketing).