There’s a lot going on in the world of ad and marketing tech right now, but one of the biggest events is the announcement of the government looking to go after Google for having a monopoly on ad
business.
It depends on whom you talk to and what they have said most recently, whether this announcement has real teeth to it. Ironically, this comes at a time when Google is most
threatened by competition in the sector.
First off, let’s be honest. Google did have a monopoly for a long time, but that monopoly seems to be weakening over the last few
years. The biggest reason is all the newly established players in the ad space who reign supreme in other categories and want to be successful here, too.
Amazon has made a massive inroad
into the ad space, followed closely by other retail media networks. You also have TikTok doing its (byte)dance. Then you have Disney and Netflix piling onto the streaming advertising
market and although they don’t have volume yet, they will, and they are following suit with companies like Hulu and others who have made a dent in the video market. Disney and Netflix are
almost guaranteed to drive a lot of budgets because no matter what technology is created, content is, and always will remain, king.
Second, ChatGPT is raising alarm bells in the halls of
Google. Execs are talking off the record about how much the AI revolution threatens the golden goose of paid search. Google’s entire business is built on the back of paid
search, and although there has been no real threat against that foundation since the late '90s, Microsoft investing in ChatGPT is a watershed moment that could expose and expand any weaknesses in the
armor of Google’s current strategy. It may not be this year or next year, but without a viable strategy in response to these AI developments, we could look back at 2023 as the beginning of
the end of Google’s dominance.
Thirdly, and once again being honest, the folks in the House and in the Senate don’t understand Google, while much of the current GOP leadership is
not that vocal about wanting to go after Big Tech, regardless of what their colleagues are saying. They may have made the announcement, but Congress lacks the follow-up and depth of
understanding required. They could very quickly and very easily decide that the monopoly is nonexistent, close their books, and go home.
Bipartisan support to go after Big Tech is
probably hard to come by,, since many of the folks in Congress realize that not only does this group lobby them, but they represent large sums of tax money and jobs in their respective states.
It’s hard to justify going after the folks who pay the bills.
Lastly, what about the cookie? Government has a number of legislative activities intended to make online privacy
stronger and more favorable for the consumer. The government will be hard-pressed to make something work while Google is already in the process of doing it for them. Google is further down
the path of killing cookies than the U.S. government is. If Congress members do a little homework, they may realize that Google is doing their job for them, and far more efficiently.
If anything, the government could simply impose more regulations on Google and the rest of the primary digital platforms, and that could be a simple one-two punch to advance their concerns about
consumer privacy.
No, I don’t really think the government will go after Google. I see this as similar to how they went after Ticketmaster in the '90s. A few moments made for
TV and some expansive speeches, and not much will come of it.
What about you? Do you think this movement has merit or teeth?