• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, July 12, 2023

With digital-first media companies in the driver’s seat, the next wave of streaming/linear TV content battles is about to start: Sports TV rights.

Linear TV will be desperate to maintain its position on the road.

Netflix, Amazon, Apple TV+ and others have been only toying with pursuing big TV sports franchises so far: Amazon with “Thursday Night Football, Apple TV+ with “Friday Night Baseball”, and some live soccer content from Major League Soccer.

Up until now the likes of CBS, Disney-ABC, Fox, and NBCUniversal, Warner Bros. Discovery have maintained much of their dominance in sports with the likes of NFL, NBA, and NHL.

And yes, virtually those legacy TV companies have made deals with the sports leagues giving them rights to also air sports content on their respective premium streaming platforms.

But the next iteration is where the likes of Netflix, Amazon, Apple TV+ will take the next step, making ever bigger lucrative deals for airings of these bigger sports leagues. 

"Sports will drive people into the streaming world -- and that's going to be the next phrase of development here,” said Michael Nathanson, senior research analyst/co-founder of MoffettNathanson Research, recently on CNBC.

All that will put way more pressure on legacy TV-based network companies when it comes to increasingly less profitable/money losing sports deals. Some may just need to make the ultimate, somewhat unimaginable decision: Pulling out of sports completely.

YouTube TV has already sent alarm bells around the business with its winning  of “NFL Sunday Ticket," the out-of-market football games.

One major TV contract -- the NBA negotiations -- is set to commence soon.  Walt Disney’s ABC-ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery’s TNT currently share national TV rights.

"David [Zaslav, chief executive officer of Warner Bros. Discovery] has a tough decision here,” says Nathanson. “He keeps saying how he loves cash flow. [But] this is not a positive [cash] development.”

He adds: “Do they write a check that is going to hurt them but keep them viable, or do they walk away from the NBA that is going to save them money in the short run? To me that's the next big challenge of the NBA negotiations.”

One bit of silver lining for linear: “If I’m the NBA, I’ll need a couple of bets in linear just to maintain reach for vibrancy in the brand.” 

A more dire reading perhaps might equate to this: With only seconds left on the clock, linear TV’s modestly challenged three point shot needs to go in.