• by Jon Last , Columnist, January 14, 2025

Some attribute the expression, “Whoever dies with the most toys, wins” to Malcolm Forbes, but regardless of its origin, today’s sports market has hit a new stratosphere in elite athlete compensation.  Bank accounts have eclipsed jumbotrons when it comes to scorekeeping, and with it, roster continuity as a driver of fandom is as archaic as the Wishbone formation.

Perhaps that’s OK, since much of fandom has evolved -- or devolved, depending upon your perspective -- into more personalized consumption through fantasy sports, the proliferation of sports wagering options and other participatory fandom.

Maybe I’m a dinosaur for remaining despondent over how in the world my beloved Tennessee Titans will rebuild from their NFL worst finish, and should turn my attention instead to some Super Bowl and College Football Championship parlays.

It just seems so much attention is focused on the money rather than the competition itself that I can’t help but ponder the ultimate ramifications for fan engagement marketing.  When the Mets signed Juan Soto to baseball’s largest contract, few seemed to bristle that based on his past two years’ performance, he would be earning about $89,000 every time he was at bat, and $327,000 per hit.  But as a sports market researcher, it begs questions about how compelling this will be to the average fan.

Maybe it was always this way, but just on a different scale.  I recall writing a column for my college newspaper about how a boxer who was knocked out in the first round of a fight earned the equivalent of about $20,000 per second for his performance.  I opined, at the time, that I would have taken that deal and gotten into the ring with anyone.  I figured I could spend a few grand on training to learn how to cover up and protect myself, then dance around for a few seconds and hobble out with an unprecedented payday for a college student.

But even those economics are long in the past, even for college athletes.  With the advent of NIL and the Wild West that has become NCAA sports, today, it is becoming difficult to differentiate college sports from professional leagues.  Schools are now hiring general managers and thinking about salary caps.  The transfer portals have swelled, and roster turnover is at unprecedented levels.

There's so much money flowing through that it may be easy to eschew thinking about marketing connections with fans and creating a relatable and differentiated product. Everyone, it seems, is getting rich.

But when fan research that we conducted in late December showed that more than three quarters agree that professional athletes make more than they are worth, it does raise some longer-term questions.  When the same study showed a +15 point rise from August to December, to 61% of fans disagreeing that the net impact of NIL deals in college was a positive, I have to wonder if and when the other shoe is going to drop.