• by Dave Morgan , Featured Contributor, April 10, 2025

To tariff -- or not tariff? To tariff and have a change of heart.

Business news in the U.S. over the past month has been dynamic -- to say the least -- none of which is good for advertising-based businesses. As we all know, ad spend is one of the first “costs” that brands and retailers cut during economic downturns, and one of the last “investments” that they reinstate when the downturn ends.

But it's not just downturns. Dynamism in the market, and the resulting uncertainty, makes it very difficult to plan for the future. Advertising is an investment in the future, whether it is to sell something tomorrow, next week, next month or next year.

Simply put: Optimism is advertising’s friend; pessimism is its enemy; and uncertainty is its enemy on steroids.

Yes, uncertainty is worse than pessimism. If you expect things to get worse, you can plan for the downturn and develop strategies to win in a declining market. But if you don’t know what will happen, you tend to cut spending, not make commitments, and wait for more certainty to rear its head, which might be a long time. The longer it takes, the more that inertia prevents you from moving forward when things clear up.

So, now that tariffs are “paused,” all will be good in adland, right? Don’t count on it.

The shock has been real. We’re all being trained to wait for the next shoe to drop -- and no one truly knows when or where that might happen. All of which is bad for advertising businesses.

What should you do? If you depend on ad-related revenues, best to build and start implementing your resilience strategies now. You might be in for a long ride.