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Dave Morgan

Member since March 2008Contact Dave

Articles by Dave All articles by Dave

  • AI Won't Be Biggest Thing Since Sliced Bread -- But WILL Change TV Advertising in Media Insider on 01/18/2018

    To believe that we will all wake up in three years and find that our lives as advertising and media professionals will have been transformed by AI is ludicrous. The impacts of self-learning computers will take many years to really manifest themselves. That said, however, I do believe that the TV ad industry will actually see some not-insignificant effects from AI in the near term. Here are two examples that jump to mind:

  • Who Will Own The 'Marketing Cloud' Of The Future? in Media Insider on 12/28/2017

    Who will own the future of the trillion dollars or so spent on marketing every year? Many people believe this arena will be dominated by whoever controls the most and best consumer data, combined with the most and best opportunities to connect that data with massively scaled touchpoints These companies will have lots of consumer data and lots of chances to capture value from that data in the targeting, measurement and optimization of all forms of commercial communication, from email, digital banners, digital video and TV ads to e-commerce personalization, snail mail and telemarketing.

  • What I'm Excited About For 2018 -- And What Worries Me in Media Insider on 12/21/2017

    As 2017 comes to a close, I've been thinking a lot about the future and what next year might have in store. Net, net, I'm very optimistic.

  • Linda Yaccarino's Call To Fix TV Advertising And Its Measurement in Media Insider on 11/30/2017

    "We have a problem. You know it, I know it, we all know it." That's how Linda Yaccarino, chairman of advertising sales and client partnerships at NBCUniversal, greeted participants at a summit she organized earlier this week in New York City to talk about issues in TV ad measurement.

  • Why Have TV Viewers Stopped Channel Surfing? in Media Insider on 11/16/2017

    We all know the headlines about television these days: "Massive ratings declines." "Prime time down." "TV dying as viewers cut the cord." Do these really tell the whole story about the behaviors of U.S. TV viewers, and the health of TV as media? Not exactly.

  • Marketers, You Want Innovation? Bring On The Engineers! in Media Insider on 11/09/2017

    As a group, the most creative thinkers and doers that I have worked with have been engineers. Yes, engineers. There's a reason that Silicon Valley has driven so much innovation in the Internet era and the people that have delivered the best solutions have been engineers. (And I write this as a digital entrepreneur who is proud of his liberal arts education.)

  • Will Mobile Become The Dog Wagging TV Advertising's Tail? in Media Insider on 10/19/2017

    There's no question that mobile advertising will someday -- perhaps in five to seven years -- overtake television in overall U.S. ad spend. However, I think that it's quite likely that mobile will become the dog wagging TV advertising's tail well before it becomes the largest platform for U.S. ad spend. Here is why:

  • Marketers, You Want Innovation? Bring On The Engineers! in Media Insider on 10/12/2017

    As a group, the most creative thinkers and doers that I have worked with have been engineers. Yes, engineers. There's a reason that Silicon Valley has driven so much innovation in the Internet era and the people that have delivered the best solutions have been engineers. (And I write this as a digital entrepreneur who is proud of his liberal arts education.)

  • Solving Advertising's Trust Problem in Media Insider on 09/28/2017

    When the choices of where to advertise were few -- local radio, local newspapers, local broadcast TV, magazines and Yellow Pages -- the issue of trust in your media partners was pretty straightforward: Did my ad run as promised? Was the copy OK? Did they charge me the right amount? Flash-forward to today. By far the hottest topic among Advertising Week attendees, panelists and pundits in New York City over the past few days has been advertising's big trust problem.

  • Who Will Own The 'Marketing Cloud' Of The Future?  in Media Insider on 09/21/2017

    Who will own the future of the trillion dollars or so spent on marketing every year? Many people believe this arena will be dominated by whoever controls the most and best consumer data, combined with the most and best opportunities to connect that data with massively scaled touchpoints These companies will have lots of consumer data and lots of chances to capture value from that data in the targeting, measurement and optimization of all forms of commercial communication, from email, digital banners, digital video and TV ads to e-commerce personalization, snail mail and telemarketing.

Comments by Dave All comments by Dave

  • AI Won't Be Biggest Thing Since Sliced Bread -- But WILL Change TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 01/18/2018)

    Ed, Yes. that is my point. When the big coporate deals, which are heavy in cheap GRP's finally delivery, they have much higher frequency than was planned, with a lot of that dispartiy between the heavy and light TV viewers. And, it's getting worse. This is why no one "posts" on de-averaged person level reach. The results are too ugly. Everyone now just looks at the averages. For most TV campaigns, the dispartiy between all quintiles of TV viewing and exposure to TV ads at the campaign level is massively weighted to heavy TV viewers,  with the lightest TV viewers getting very few top brand oriented TV ads. Instead, they tend to get heavy direct resposne schedules. More intelligent computer planning can help a lot. Actually making sure that the buys deliver on the promises of the planning would help incredibly.

  • AI Won't Be Biggest Thing Since Sliced Bread -- But WILL Change TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 01/18/2018)

    Ed, ... oops ... just realized that my last comment should have started ... "we don't [dis]agree as much as it seems" ... sorry about the typo!

  • AI Won't Be Biggest Thing Since Sliced Bread -- But WILL Change TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 01/18/2018)

    Ed, we don't agree as much as it seems. There is nothing wrong with the planning. However, it is no longer true that what is planned is bought. The majority of most national TV campaigns GRP's today are delivered through "packagin," not the planned-out spots that were hoped for those many months before.On the Erwin issue, he is the article I am referring to. It is not about recency, but about maximizing reach in an increasingly fragmented world: https://www.warc.com/content/article/esomar/learning_to_live_in_lilliput,_the_media_land_where_small_is_beautiful_optimizing_reach_with_low_ratings_and_other_thoughts_on_tv_fragmentation/9286Thanks so much for the great back-and-forth!

  • AI Won't Be Biggest Thing Since Sliced Bread -- But WILL Change TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 01/18/2018)

    Ed, 10 years ago you would have been correct to assume that basic planning techniques could keep GRP-based TV buys from deliering too much of their weight in frequency. Today, however, it is absolutely the case unless the buys are heavied up against mid and long tail cable. 75% of national TV viewing volume now occurs on episodes with a rating under 0.5. If a buy is GRP focused and aggregates spots with high average rating points (a best practice approach for decades) the campaign will dramatically over deliver frequency against heavy TV viewers. Erwin Ephron warned us about this decades ago. Today, his warnings are reality.

  • AI Won't Be Biggest Thing Since Sliced Bread -- But WILL Change TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 01/18/2018)

    Great points Larry. Yes. There is no question that AI tools will help marketer buy TV content according to indexes of target audiences who are likely to watch that content. And, more importantly, it will insure that the campaigns can be predictively tuned to optimal reach or frequency, since one problem with buying according to audience indexing is that you tend to end up with high frequency campaigns - continueing to hit the same target members. This is where AI's ability to sort through mathamatically massive amounts of combinations makes a big difference.

  • AI Won't Be Biggest Thing Since Sliced Bread -- But WILL Change TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 01/18/2018)

    Ed, great points. I totally agree about the share of voice argurment. However, what I should have been clearer about is that it is not fragmentation that creates heavy frequency buys, it is buying on large average rating points that creates frequency heavy campaigns in a fragemtned world. Owning share of voice is great, but it's not so great if you only own it with one quintil of TV viewershp. That is what is happening today.

  • What I'm Excited About For 2018 -- And What Worries Me by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 12/21/2017)

    Great points Ed. I do agree that the biggest disruption will be all of the new streaming services, most of which will have little or no ad support (at least for now). However, I am hopeful that advanced media buying will become more prominent in TV, probably not for old-line marketers who still view it at "buying TV time," but for those who care more about TV's capacity to drive sales and desired outcomes - retail, financial services, e-commerce, travel. No matter what, it will be fun to watch!

  • What I'm Excited About For 2018 -- And What Worries Me by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 12/21/2017)

    Thanks Deejay. I do think that we'll see & hear a lot of conversations about AI and blockchain aorund the ad business in 2018 ... though, I'm less certain how much those conversations will translate into meaningful initiatives that will actually make a difference. Our industry loves to talk about bright shiny objects.

  • Linda Yaccarino's Call To Fix TV Advertising And Its Measurement by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 11/30/2017)

    I agree Eric. Your background in sales, client-side and agency give you a perspective many dob't have. I'm hopeful that the sell-side will offer up more flexiblity and control to the buy-side, that the strong emerging agencies will take advantage of it and build leadership models for everyone else. As we've discussed, it's most likely that small shops - not holding companies - will lead the way here.

  • Linda Yaccarino's Call To Fix TV Advertising And Its Measurement by Dave Morgan (Media Insider on 11/30/2017)

    Tracey, you're totally on target. A lot of players have to move to make this work. At the least, clients need to prioritize and pay agencies to take the kind of innovative steps that you and John took. Second, sellers have to unbunlde dayparts and rotators so that advertisers and agencies can better exploit data targeting and more strategic buying methods. It's coming, I'm sure, but only because a lot of folks are finally ready to follow pioneers ilke you!

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