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Dave Morgan

Member since March 2008Contact Dave

Articles by Dave All articles by Dave

  • Time To 'Do More Digital' -- But Rationally, Not Blindly in Online Spin on 05/25/2017

    You read and hear it everywhere in the ad and marketing world: Do more digital. I've been in digital advertising since the early 1990s, so I'm happy that the market has finally gotten the religion. However, we're seeing a lot of unintended consequences from those calls for digital being followed too blindly, too literally. Problems with viewability, fraud and bots have been just a few of the unintended consequences of doing more digital without really understanding what might happen if budgets for "programmatic" were increased tenfold without understanding where the inventory could come from - particularly CPMs that seemed too cheap to believe (and were).

  • Unpacking Omar Sheikh's $100B Call On Future Of Data-Targeted TV Ads in Online Spin on 05/11/2017

    Two weeks ago, Credit Suisse's Omar Sheikh, one of the top media analysts on Wall Street, made a BIG call on the future of TV advertising. He believes that the introduction of data-driven targeting into conventional linear TV advertising -- where spots are bought and sold on the basis of the specific people viewing them and the measured business outcomes -- will generate an incremental $100 billion in annual TV advertising sales in the U.S. by the year 2030.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising in Online Spin on 04/20/2017

    TV ads are about to undergo a huge shift in how they are bought and sold. This change isn't just about the big announcements of late about audience-based TV ads - the OpenAP consortia from Fox, Turner and Viacom, as well as NBCU's announcement that it would reserve $1 billion of its inventory this year for audience-based sales.Nope, something even more fundamental is happening in media, and it's going to have its biggest impact on TV. The future of TV will be about performance.

  • If Content Remains King Of TV Advertising, Will Audience Or Performance Be Queen? in Online Spin on 04/13/2017

    The television ad industry knows that big change is afoot. Ratings are declining, audiences are fragmenting, digital competition is fierce, and agencies and advertisers are pushing back hard on their CPM increases. Fortunately, however, TV companies have recognized that the future of their ad business will look a lot like digital's, which is why many are working hard to develop digital-like, premium-priced, data-optimized ad products. It's the right move, yet it may not be enough.

  • Who Will Control Future Of Marketing When It Becomes Digital And Data-Driven? in Online Spin on 03/23/2017

    Software has been transforming and disrupting advertising for decades, certainly ever since our industry's technology pioneers like media legend and longtime Group M leader Irwin Gotlieb began writing software to automate media planning and buying in the 1960s. However, for anyone who thought that advertising's path to a digitized and data-driven future would be a predictable and straight line, it has certainly not met those expectations, particularly in light of the industry's recent tumult around measurement, environment and control of ad tech.

  • Why Are Marketers Losing Confidence In Their Ability To Do Their Jobs? in Online Spin on 02/23/2017

    MediaPost reported yesterday on the 2017 edition of the American Marketing Association's Marketers Confidence Index. Apparently, marketers today are losing confidence in their ability to meet key goals, like reaching the right customers with their marketing efforts, or being able to understand or evaluate the ROI of their marketing plans. That's in spite of the fact that they feel more confident overall.

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon in Online Spin on 01/19/2017

    Yes, streaming services are starting to eat away at multichannel TV. So what if 50% of today's linear TV viewing shifted over to streaming services over the next three or four years? A lot would happen. Hundreds of billions of dollars of retail brand sales could be put in jeopardy, while brands' relationships with retailers would change dramatically. Here's why:

  • Customers Are Not Commodities. Why Does Advertising Treat Them Like They Are? in Online Spin on 01/12/2017

    Technology is starting to transform marketing, starting with how enterprises talk to consumers. We have websites, ecommerce, email and mobile apps. It's so much easier for customers and marketers to proactively connect than ever before. Now that we have all of these digital touch-points and databases, marketers and their corporate information officers and finance officers are looking for models to organize and manage all of these marketing and advertising activities. And, quite naturally, they are looking for guidance to models that worked on other parts of their business. Not surprisingly, many have focused on what has worked for their supply chain and have tried to apply supply chain-oriented models to their "demand chain."

  • What 2017 Will Bring  in Online Spin on 12/09/2016

    Dave Morgan's predictions: from the rise of enterprise tech and STEM marketers to the fall of the term "programmatic."

  • Moving Past The Echo Chamber Of Our Own Jargon in Online Spin on 11/17/2016

    GRP. CPM. CPA. DSP. DMP. That is how we talk to each other. That is how we talk to our clients. That is a problem.

Comments by Dave All comments by Dave

  • Time To 'Do More Digital' -- But Rationally, Not Blindly by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 05/25/2017)

    Good point Ron, though since so much is already bought that way, Hulu's adoption here gives them comparabilty to advertisers linear TV buys. I don't think that it means that they won't release other data as appropriate.

  • Time To 'Do More Digital' -- But Rationally, Not Blindly by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 05/25/2017)

    I totally agree Henry. This will have a big impact - in a good way - on living room video measurements.

  • Unpacking Omar Sheikh's $100B Call On Future Of Data-Targeted TV Ads by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 05/11/2017)

    Also to be considered is that it's not just about target audience indexing, but unique share of voice. To maximize performance of TV campaigns, you need to index every target audience member by their medcia behaviors rather than indexing shows by their audience composition. Otherwise, you end up buying lots of high inex shows and ending up with lots of frequency against the same people rather than target audience reach maximization, which is what you really need to maximize performance.

  • Unpacking Omar Sheikh's $100B Call On Future Of Data-Targeted TV Ads by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 05/11/2017)

    Ed, got it. The core thesis is that the total amount of GRP's accoss all of TV is still plenty and that convertising wasteful GRP's into predictable, highly-performant, much smaller TRP's allows media owners to chop up blocks of modestly priced GRP's into much higher priced TRP's. The prices for these TRP's will be much, much higher since not only will they deliver predictable ROI, but they will be accessible and of value to many, many more marketers, so the demand side of the overalll TV market will go up dramatically.

  • Unpacking Omar Sheikh's $100B Call On Future Of Data-Targeted TV Ads by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 05/11/2017)

    Ed, I completely disagree. Just because shows have small audiences doesn't make them undesirable. I think that one of the worst things the TV industry has done is to place undue influence on "average rating points." Certainly, English Premiere League draws relatively small audiences, but no luxury advertiser would come them undesirable. Further, there is no empircal evidence to suggest that small shows are watched by old people and those with low incomes. Actually, in many casees, it's quite the opposite. Large, prime-time shows tend to have the heaviest Tv viewers, which skew older and lower income. The smaller networks deeper into cable tend to have more lighter TV viewers in concentration (if you know where to find them), who are universally younger and higher income. Makes sense, since those channels and typically in premium tiers that add a lot to the monthly cable bill. What is hard is buildng optimial plans that can deliver cost-effficiently Erwin Ephron's 3 R's, Reach, Relevance and Recency. With 250,000 different TV ad spots to consider each day, the permutations of combinations available over a two month time period represent more potential outcomes than there are atoms in the universe (true, not an exaggeration).

  • Unpacking Omar Sheikh's $100B Call On Future Of Data-Targeted TV Ads by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 05/11/2017)

    Thanks Ted. No one is better at making the seemingly complex simple. Well said!

  • Unpacking Omar Sheikh's $100B Call On Future Of Data-Targeted TV Ads by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 05/11/2017)

    Very good points Ed. Given the fact that 75% of all TV viewing today occurs on episodes of shows with national ratings below 0.5, there is pently of diversity of spots to select from to build performance-focused TV ad campaigns. For example, no shows rated 0.5 or better today have an audience composition of Big Box Retail Shoppers indexing at 150 or better. However, 8% of shows rated below 0.5 have those shoppers at a 150 index or better. Systems that can find those needles in the haystack and aggregate them by the ton for marketers will drive this future.

  • Unpacking Omar Sheikh's $100B Call On Future Of Data-Targeted TV Ads by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 05/11/2017)

    Thanks Long!

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Jack, on target as always. Managing collinearity and spurious relationships will put a ton of stress on the performance models, even given the enormous power of TV. On top of that, as you point out, marketers need to rise to the challenge of establishing what performance is, something that has been beyond most in this context.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Very good points Ed. Performance guarantees fit much better in scatter than in upfronts. While TV today doesn't have anything even close to the dynamic and addressable world of media placement, audience databses, data targeting and real-time creative optimizatoin of the digital ad world, there have been some developments that make it much better suited for sales performance guaarentees than it ever could have before. HH matchable set-top box at scale means that we can now build massive single source data structures underlying TV and link TV ad exposure to sales at the HH level very quickly (across millions and millions of household). Audience fragmentaion has become a friend of targeting here (as Erwin Ephron always told us it would), since the eplosive growth of small episodes (75%+of TV ad inventory now occurs o an episode rrated under 0.5%. Near reali-time ad occurence data means that we know where competitive ads ran, as well as ads under the control of other networks. Set-top bob matchable credit card purchase data means that we can know how competitors ads are performancing, as well as our clients. None of this brings certainlty to sales performance, but applying all of this across thousands of small spots in a massive campaign can bring a lot of performance optimiztion to campaigns - certainly 2-5X - as long as we don't let the pursuit of perfection interfere with just doing better.

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