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Dave Morgan

Member since March 2008Contact Dave

Articles by Dave All articles by Dave

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising in Online Spin on 04/20/2017

    TV ads are about to undergo a huge shift in how they are bought and sold. This change isn't just about the big announcements of late about audience-based TV ads - the OpenAP consortia from Fox, Turner and Viacom, as well as NBCU's announcement that it would reserve $1 billion of its inventory this year for audience-based sales.Nope, something even more fundamental is happening in media, and it's going to have its biggest impact on TV. The future of TV will be about performance.

  • If Content Remains King Of TV Advertising, Will Audience Or Performance Be Queen? in Online Spin on 04/13/2017

    The television ad industry knows that big change is afoot. Ratings are declining, audiences are fragmenting, digital competition is fierce, and agencies and advertisers are pushing back hard on their CPM increases. Fortunately, however, TV companies have recognized that the future of their ad business will look a lot like digital's, which is why many are working hard to develop digital-like, premium-priced, data-optimized ad products. It's the right move, yet it may not be enough.

  • Who Will Control Future Of Marketing When It Becomes Digital And Data-Driven? in Online Spin on 03/23/2017

    Software has been transforming and disrupting advertising for decades, certainly ever since our industry's technology pioneers like media legend and longtime Group M leader Irwin Gotlieb began writing software to automate media planning and buying in the 1960s. However, for anyone who thought that advertising's path to a digitized and data-driven future would be a predictable and straight line, it has certainly not met those expectations, particularly in light of the industry's recent tumult around measurement, environment and control of ad tech.

  • Why Are Marketers Losing Confidence In Their Ability To Do Their Jobs? in Online Spin on 02/23/2017

    MediaPost reported yesterday on the 2017 edition of the American Marketing Association's Marketers Confidence Index. Apparently, marketers today are losing confidence in their ability to meet key goals, like reaching the right customers with their marketing efforts, or being able to understand or evaluate the ROI of their marketing plans. That's in spite of the fact that they feel more confident overall.

  • Who Wins In An Ad-Free Video World? I'd Bet On Amazon in Online Spin on 01/19/2017

    Yes, streaming services are starting to eat away at multichannel TV. So what if 50% of today's linear TV viewing shifted over to streaming services over the next three or four years? A lot would happen. Hundreds of billions of dollars of retail brand sales could be put in jeopardy, while brands' relationships with retailers would change dramatically. Here's why:

  • Customers Are Not Commodities. Why Does Advertising Treat Them Like They Are? in Online Spin on 01/12/2017

    Technology is starting to transform marketing, starting with how enterprises talk to consumers. We have websites, ecommerce, email and mobile apps. It's so much easier for customers and marketers to proactively connect than ever before. Now that we have all of these digital touch-points and databases, marketers and their corporate information officers and finance officers are looking for models to organize and manage all of these marketing and advertising activities. And, quite naturally, they are looking for guidance to models that worked on other parts of their business. Not surprisingly, many have focused on what has worked for their supply chain and have tried to apply supply chain-oriented models to their "demand chain."

  • What 2017 Will Bring  in Online Spin on 12/09/2016

    Dave Morgan's predictions: from the rise of enterprise tech and STEM marketers to the fall of the term "programmatic."

  • Moving Past The Echo Chamber Of Our Own Jargon in Online Spin on 11/17/2016

    GRP. CPM. CPA. DSP. DMP. That is how we talk to each other. That is how we talk to our clients. That is a problem.

  • Just The Facts, Please -- In Our Industry As Well As Politics in Online Spin on 11/03/2016

    I've never before fully appreciated the importance of people and politicians grounding their analysis and arguments in facts and logic to the level I do now. There's nothing like a dizzyingly crazy U.S. presidential campaign, along with a spate of rhetoric-filled, emotional debates on issues like climate change, immigration, media partisanship, policing, race relations and the rise or fall of crime in America, to make you appreciate the importance of fact-based discourse.

  • Many TV Networks Growing -- Just Not The Big Ones in Online Spin on 10/20/2016

    Headlines about TV viewership have not been particularly positive. Common themes lately have been: "TV ratings plummeting," "NFL viewership in decline,""Millennials unplug from TV," or "Cord-cutting, cord-shaving growing." Then there's a big favorite lately: "TV can't deliver reach like it used to." While there's some truth in all of these ideas, they don't tell the whole story of TV viewership today.

Comments by Dave All comments by Dave

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Jack, on target as always. Managing collinearity and spurious relationships will put a ton of stress on the performance models, even given the enormous power of TV. On top of that, as you point out, marketers need to rise to the challenge of establishing what performance is, something that has been beyond most in this context.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Very good points Ed. Performance guarantees fit much better in scatter than in upfronts. While TV today doesn't have anything even close to the dynamic and addressable world of media placement, audience databses, data targeting and real-time creative optimizatoin of the digital ad world, there have been some developments that make it much better suited for sales performance guaarentees than it ever could have before. HH matchable set-top box at scale means that we can now build massive single source data structures underlying TV and link TV ad exposure to sales at the HH level very quickly (across millions and millions of household). Audience fragmentaion has become a friend of targeting here (as Erwin Ephron always told us it would), since the eplosive growth of small episodes (75%+of TV ad inventory now occurs o an episode rrated under 0.5%. Near reali-time ad occurence data means that we know where competitive ads ran, as well as ads under the control of other networks. Set-top bob matchable credit card purchase data means that we can know how competitors ads are performancing, as well as our clients. None of this brings certainlty to sales performance, but applying all of this across thousands of small spots in a massive campaign can bring a lot of performance optimiztion to campaigns - certainly 2-5X - as long as we don't let the pursuit of perfection interfere with just doing better.

  • Study: Nearly Half Of All TV Buying Will Be Programmatic Within 3 To 5 Years by Tobi Elkin (Real-Time Daily on 04/19/2017)

    Totally agree Jim. Data-optimized linear TV advertising, what you called proto-addressable years ago, should not be called programmatic. The term is very misleading. While predictive analytics and machine learning have made it much more powerful than index buying, that is is heritage and a more apt way to think about it. Calling it data-optimized or data-enabled is much more appropriate.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Great point Ed. Yes. The national TV ad market is a sellers market with demand outstripping supply. However, once some of the media owners find that they can dramaticallly increase yields of their lower demand inventory - non-prime, over 55 demos, etc. - others will have to follow suit or won't be able to keep up with them on earnings. I expect this to play out in a significant way in 2-3 years.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    John, there is no question that many, many factors impact sales performance of TV ads. However, even with that uncertainly, I think that TV ad inventory is fundamentally and signficantly underpriced relative to performance such that you can be safe with guarantees as long as you have strong enough predictive analytics and enough budget and time to meet the thresholds. The fact that some TV sellers will do it - and find sucess - will cause many in the market to follow suit, whether they like it or not.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Right on target Mark. That is exactly what I think will happen. We're starting to do some of that at my company in the tune-in category, guaranteeing TV network marketers incremental audience lift (ratings lift) for shows based upon commited spend. This model will become a key part of many of the most competed for "moveable purchase" categories where TV ads are a big driver of sales - travel, CPG, retail, ecommerce.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Dorothy, you raise some really good points. Being successful in this future won't be about just the data, it will be about the management and exploitation of a massive number of complex models across all categories, consumers, competitive and environmental characteristics. it will not be an easy world for most companies to play in.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Very good point Dale. The mobile device creates signficantly enhances the feedback loop for some purchase categories.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Totally agree Trey. Even if it's not bought and sold on performance, the performance characteristics of all TV inventory should be measured and monitored that way.

  • Performance Is New Programmatic In TV Advertising by Dave Morgan (Online Spin on 04/20/2017)

    Ed, I agree. I don't think that all TV ads will be super granular ad performance based. Branding and sponsorship and roadblocks will be around for a long time. but, I do think a big portio of TV ad inventory will be performance sold and managed.

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