• by Ray Schultz , Columnist, Yesterday

Don’t get too confident: U.S. publishers are facing a slowdown in programmatic revenue, judging by Assertive Yield’s Q1 ’25 Publisher Trends study.

The report notes that “macroeconomic uncertainty, including new tariffs and looming regulatory shakeups, has many buyers proceeding with caution.”

It adds, “While the market remains stable as of April, the forecast for the rest of the year is more fragile.”

Still, some publishers saw large YoY revenue increases in Q1, with some outperforming their pre-pandemic years. These gains “appear to be driven not by traffic surges but by increased advertiser demand across certain inventories,” the study notes. But some also saw sharp declines.

Indeed, the Q1 numbers show a surge in ad revenue among some U.S. publishers during January, February, and March 2025, the strongest Q1 start in the last five years, the study notes.

“However, the trend also shows a widening gap between outperforming and underperforming publishers, hinting at deeper shifts in inventory valuation and demand patterns,” it adds. 

In general, performance was “essentially flat when adjusted for inflation and other macro factors.” In contrast, Europe started the year with no major shifts from prior years. 

One caveat: the study is light on actual statistics. 

“Index Exchange maintained its lead in revenue share among Tier 1 publishers, while Media.net ramped upbuying volumes at lower CPMs. Meanwhile, Yieldmo, Kueez RTB, and others gained ground in supply volume, signaling a more competitive bidding environment across tiers,” writes Nils Lind, founder & CEO of Assertive Yield.

Here’s one piece of good news: “One of the most significant market events was the U.S. government’s classification of Google as a monopoly regarding AdExchange and Google Ad Manager.”

“The implications are still unfolding, but potential outcomes, such as enabling Google to bid directly into Prebid, could fundamentally reshape the competitive landscape and increase publisher autonomy,” Lind adds.