• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 5, 2006

Track the ratings when a network grabs big-name programming events or hires a big-name personality.

Then you might ask how this past NCAA title game will probably deliver its lowest ratings ever--when a team with the heritage of UCLA played. Then NBC's Winter Olympics' ratings were expected to be predictably low. But who would believe that regularly scheduled network prime-time shows would not only beat the Olympics--but crush them like they were a rerun.

CBS has already done some rough calculations. At $15 million a year for Couric, CBS is counting on at least $15 million more in new advertising dollars for the show. How many more Tylenol or Advil ads can they pack into a half-hour newscast, anyhow?

You want history? Look at the other big-name talent who has moved from NBC and CBS and you will get a little ice water for clarity. After a brief retirement of sorts, Bryant Gumbel moved to CBS from NBC and offered up two mediocre performances--first with "Public Eye" and then with "The Early Show."

Perhaps a better comparison was the high drama, high-profile move of NBC's David Letterman to CBS in the early '90s. CBS gained strength when Letterman did a brief stint in the No. 1 position for late night, but he didn't hold on to the honor for that long.

Whither Couric?

And now an even perkier CBS will tout Couric's big brand name as it moves through the upfronts and the summer program schedule, using her as a news marketing wedge against NBC and ABC.

Some more recent history: "The Today Show" was in a spell of trouble last year as ABC's "Good Morning America" was nipping at its heels. While too many soft news features were to blame, Couric was still in the "Today" co-host seat.

The end result? "The Today Show" will lose some steam in the ratings--but recover. The show has been through this before, first when Barbara Walters and then Jane Pauley departed. "The CBS Evening News" will gain some ground--but probably not enough to overtake NBC and Brian Williams.

Like UCLA in the NCAA Tournament, Couric will come to play ball. But big results may not be her birthright.