• by May 11, 2004

IT MAY BE THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT, BUT JUST THINK OF THE AUDIENCE SHARES -- Normally, television networks at least attempt to strike an upbeat pose heading into the upfront television sales season, but one major cable network Monday conceded "the future remains uncertain." And it's not just the immediate future of the 2004-05 season that's got this channel concerned, but the outlook for decades beyond. "Potential outcomes over the next century (and beyond) range from moderate and manageable to extreme and catastrophic, depending on a number of factors," predicted The Weather Channel, sounding more like perennially pessimistic former Zenith forecaster- in-chief Jonathan Perris than Universal McCann's rose-tinted seer Bob Coen. Of course, TWC wasn't forecasting the outcome of the upfront ad sales season, but of an even more hotly debated topic: the threat of global warming. It may just be the unseasonably sweltering climate in Midtown Manhattan today, but as the Riff sits here schpritzing, we tend to agree with the weather wonks on this one.

The only question we have, is what will catastrophically high temperatures mean for TV HUT levels, and for TWC's Nielsen ratings? Ordinarily, warm weather sends people outdoors and away from their TV sets, sending the share of households using television downward, and ratings for many channels in more or less the same direction. So, while the rest of the planet frets over things like deforestation, the melting of the polar ice caps and threats to our very existence as a species - not to mention the entire ecosystem - we think it's time that Madison Avenue turn its attention to the potential threat global warming poses for further TV audience erosion and the stability of Nielsen ratings patterns. But don't look for Fox to probe too deeply into this one. In fact, Fox stands to be a big beneficiary of extreme climatic changes, at least in the very near term.

The May 27 premiere of Fox's theatrical release, "The Day After Tomorrow," promises to be huge at the box office. So big, in fact, that TWC has already concocted a cross-promotional stunt to seize on any consumer interest that the film is likely to pique on the subject, and will premiere its new "Extreme Weather Theories" special that very same night in primetime.

Meanwhile, moviegoers will see TWC depicted in Fox's new science fiction flick. The film, which is about the impact a new ice age has on the planet earth, portrays TWC as one of the last networks on-air amidst the chaos caused by the catastrophic weather event. The irony, of course, is that TWC will finally reap the kind of ratings windfall its weather programming deserves, but no one will be around to buy it.

Audience shares aside, such extreme climatic changes are not the far-stretched scenarios that a sci-fi film might suggest. "Throughout history, there have been large - and sometimes sudden -- climate changes - most of them before humans could possibly have been a factor. Plus, the sun/atmosphere/land/ocean 'climate system' is extraordinarily complex," notes Dr. Heidi Cullen, an expert on climatic changes who has just joined TWC as part of its commitment to covering the topic of global warming, which the channel asserts "is real" -- not fiction, or even science fiction.