If I had a crystal ball, I would be a very rich woman--obvious statement, but true. Having said that, I know there are tools out there that can provide some insight into how I can at least hedge my
bets. But I think that as we move into 2007, we have more information sources, research, data points, and insight products than we know what to do with. As a researcher, I am about to commit heresy--I
am going to posit that you should not worry so much about gathering data to find out where consumers are going; rather, we should use the most effective tools, the most relevant data, to understand
where they are. With the rate of technological change outpacing the average human's ability to keep up, and all the data that comes with that, it seems we are hyper-focused on the future rather than
the present.
So here is what I do know: there exist distinct patterns of technology adoption; the online community is maturing and commoditizing; media consumption, and more importantly, consumers
are evolving. So far, my generation has watched industries be transformed. The music industry, for example, has evolved from the eight-track tape and vinyl to be replaced by the cassette, then the CD,
and now the digital file. We have watched technology formats evolve from emerging to dominant, consumers adopt the top formats, and entire sectors of commerce rise and fall. All of these changes have
created vast amounts of data --data, data, everywhere you look. So now what?
My suggestion is that we stop for a moment and regroup. I think I have said this before, but data is only as good as
the person who interprets it. I forgot to mention the impact of the context within which it is used. For example, The Pew Internet & American Life Project released a report recently about home
broadband adoption, some highlights of which follow: 42 percent of all American adults had a high speed Internet connection at home; nearly half of the new Internet users were taking high-speed
services at home; broadband adoption grew 68 percent, from 2005, among households with incomes between $40,000 and $50,000; adoption also grew over 120 percent among African-Americans between 2005 and
2006; and finally, home broadband adoption grew by 70 percent for people with less than a high-school education and 63 percent for senior citizens. Good data, yes? Sure. But what does it really mean?
That depends. To access providers, the data means a maturing market. To communications specialists, it could signal a greater audience to reach. To content distributors, it is an opportunity and a
misfortune at the same time. For me, since I am fascinated by user-generated content (at least this week), it means that we are in the cusp of a user-generated content tsunami. What this means, and
how it will change the landscape within which our industry operates, I do not know.
But what I do know is this: let's enjoy the ride. We need to pace ourselves in how valuable this behavior is,
what the data will tell us, and how we can use it effectively to change the way we connect with consumers. Watch. Listen. Learn. What is happening today will give you a better understanding of what
will happen tomorrow. History has a tendency to repeat itself, a fact that we researchers and marketers tend to ignore. After all, isn't data merely a metric? Doesn't power lie in our application, or
rejection of it, to accurately predict the future based on the past? You tell me.