• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, October 2, 2006

Mark Cuban is right--you'd have to be a moron to buy YouTube.

But what we'd really like to know is: Who will fess up to other boneheaded deals for possibly too-hip, overpriced entertainment companies? We'll spare you any long list, except for this one: Remember BMG's deal for Napster?

Where is Napster today? And where are those regular 50 million regular users who downloaded what they thought was free music? They've gone elsewhere.

YouTube may be looking down the same tube. With 100 million video downloads a day--according to estimates--YouTube doesn't want to become the next Napster.

Napster too had copyright issues. Mark Cuban warns that YouTube is going to have its own copyright issues--ones that have kept big media buyers at bay--or perhaps have angered them. (NBC did have an early tussle with YouTube because of a "Saturday Night Live" clip, but are now good friends and marketing partners with them.)

Cuban was speaking during last week's Advertising Week festivities, as was NBC Universal chairman Bob Wright. Wright talked about YouTube but didn't focus on its copyright issues. He was more concerned about the type of success YouTube had.

Wright called YouTube and MySpace "hits"--akin to what comes, and, unfortunately, goes, in the prime-time TV business. More stable players seem to be those like Google and Yahoo--companies more akin to what a "network" is.

For his own company, NBC Universal takes a wait-and-prove approach when it comes to Internet properties--thus the purchase of the long-time stable Web area, iVillage. Of course, that's what ex-Viacom chairman Tom Freston was trying to do--go after a proven, longtime performer--all because he had a looming boss ready to pounce on any over-priced Internet deal. MySpace, was the company, and he let it go to News Corp. Freston's boss pounced anyway--on him.

That said, even News Corp. chairman Rupert Murdoch has been shocked at the success of MySpace. News Corp. paid $580 million for MySpace. Analysts say in a few years it could be worth $15 billion to $20 billion. Yeah, that's right. Someone made a mistake at News Corp.; MySpace was supposed to be a more modest player.

Thus goes the TV business: Avoiding moronic deals while maintaining the look of dominance--or, is it making moronic deals and becoming even more dominant?