• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, December 4, 2006

The TV program distribution landscape is changing again: After a decade, cable networks can't take on any more off-broadcast network dramas. Looking to blame the new digital world? This time it's not the usual suspects.

Over a decade ago, cable took syndication's thunder in feasting on after-market broadcast network's one-hour dramas when syndication's economics didn't work. Residuals were too expensive for program distributors to pay, and stations couldn't pony up more in license fees. So distributors flocked to cable.

Now, cable networks are getting indigestion. They can't dine on many more dramas. Analysts believe many of these dramas will make their way back to syndication and local stations as off-network Monday to Friday shows.

NBC Universal already started a trend two months ago when it cleared many of the Fox-owned TV stations for reruns of "Law & Order: Criminal Intent" during the weekdays beginning next fall--all while the series continues its multiple weekday run on USA.

Other shows might end up going the same way. Program distributors are worried they won't be able to find cable homes for dramas such as "Lost," "Criminal Minds," "Numbers," "The OC," "One Tree Hill" and "Supernatural."

But before you start thinking all this is due the new digital Internet, VOD, and mobile platforms, hold your media player. 

What happened is that cable has matured to the point where it has maxed out on traditional shelf space. Rerunning, say, "Without a Trace" and "Cold Case" on TNT Monday to Friday means TNT gives up a huge chunk--two hours a night--of its prime-time programming schedule. There's not that much room left--nor much money to spend on these high-priced drama reruns.

Think NBC Universal, Sony Pictures Television or CBS Paramount Television will just sell those shows to Internet companies--or put them on their own Web sites? What makes you think they can replace cable's current license fee for a one-hour drama, which runs about $2 million an episode? What makes you think a program distributor can get what equates to $2 million an episode from Web site advertising? 

They can't. Though CPMs are way higher on the Web for highly branded off-network TV shows, actual out-of-pocket costs per spot are a speck of what content distributors can get on cable or in syndication.

The program distributor's dilemma is this: While cable continues to grow, broad-based general-interest entertainment cable networks like TNT, A&E, Lifetime, Spike and FX, do not.

That said, a few niche networks have attempted to shoehorn in some of this programming--sometimes not one-hour dramas, but one-hour reality shows. Sports channel Versus (the former OLN), took a chance on an entertainment program series, buying up "Survivor," which makes an uneasy schedule mix with mostly traditional sports programming.

No one knows the long-term viability of rerunning reality shows. One-hour dramas have a better track record and will surely be a staple for cable networks for years to come--if these dramas are not back on stations.

All this says more about the shifts in traditional TV distribution, which still holds the menu with lots of leverage and main courses of big entrée advertising revenues.