• by Rob Garner , January 3, 2007

Last year was an exciting one in the interactive industry. While we are still at a turning point with many new challenges and opportunities ahead, it's worth noting that we arrived at this point because of passion, trial, practice and education throughout the industry. I personally feel very fortunate to witness and participate in this historic window of time where marketers are pushing the evolution of digital advertising through their ideas, words and actions.

With that, here are a few thoughts on SEM trends to watch in 2007:

Dream Stream search reporting comes of age. No matter what it's called--"assisted clicks," "participating clicks," "upstream analysis" or "clickstream analysis"--search marketers have long dreamed of seeing reports that don't just stop at the converting keyword or phrase, but rather show the process of search intention through multiple terms leading to conversion. This insight will not come from the search engines or enterprise analytics firms this year, but will instead come from search analytics agencies that are well aware of the basic dynamics of search engine behavior.

Once savvy marketers get a glimpse of the real search processes of their most valuable customers, major shifts in paid and natural strategy will be applied. Marketers will no longer wonder about such things as the subjective value of contributing generic terms, actual costs of brand terms related to a conversion (where brand terms are clicked multiple times before a conversion), and the dynamic interplay between paid and natural search across multiple terms and engines. The result of this extended keyword insight will be far reaching; some corporate marketers should expect this data to find its way into communications and marketing plans, and use it to guide comprehensive corporate communications strategies.

Demand for agencies practicing hybrid paid and natural approaches will increase. As research and analytics continue to prove the dynamic impact between natural and paid search on conversions and brand visibility, marketers utilizing two separate agencies or departments will begin to realize that their campaigns are not running on all eight cylinders. For those paid agencies trying to play holistic catch-up, attaining a dual competency will be more difficult because of the required skill sets for managing natural search in an increasingly competitive and technical landscape.

The emergence of the Pageless Web will generate some soul searching among SEMs and search engines. Continuing a trend that began in 2005, more rich Internet applications will be built to improve user experience and navigation, though they may come at the cost of search visibility and performance. In the pageless Web paradigm, finding, being found and being counted will become more technical and complicated than ever before; engines, optimizers and developers will spend the year working out solutions to the challenges. (See my Dec. 20, 2006 column for more on the implications of the pageless Web.)

Users will begin to have an impact on algorithmic search. At last July's Keystone, Colorado Search Insider conference, representatives from both Yahoo and Google stated that users would soon have at least some influence on algorithmic search results. This is a particularly significant shift for Google, considering its long-term position on maintaining the "computer-based" integrity of its results. Expect to see at least one rollout of user-impacted results from Yahoo in 2007, with Google holding out longer to "officially" add it to the mix in 2008.

Search education gets hot. It's no coincidence that the Direct Marketing Association, SEMPO, and Search Engine Strategies are developing SEM education and certification tracks. Whether you are handling search in-house, or working with an agency, search training helps you understand what you're trying to achieve in both paid and natural search, and helps break down the barriers that often impede search performance. But I'm sure you already knew that, and you and your colleagues will be attending a class, conference or training session soon.

Here's to a happy and prosperous 2007. I hope you will make something good happen.