Kerry Takes Iowa, But Iowa Beats New Hampshire: Caucus Takes In More Campaign Ad Dollars

The winner of yesterday's Iowa caucus - John Kerry - wasn't known until late last night, but Iowa has so far trumped rival New Hampshire in the battle for campaign ad dollars.

Almost twice as many campaign ads were aired on TV reaching Iowa voters than New Hampshire during the first nine days of 2004, according to TNS Media Intelligence's Campaign Media Analysis Group. By Jan. 9, the latest data available, $8.7 million was spent on TV reaching Iowa voters compared to $6.46 million on New Hampshire primary voters.

"We're seeing a shifting of resources from New Hampshire into Iowa," said Evan Tracey, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group. Twice as many ads aired in Iowa than in New Hampshire, although that may not show up in the spending data because media time in Iowa costs less than it does in New Hampshire, which is part of the Boston market.

Iowa's caucus was the first test of the Democratic presidential candidates. While it's particularly significant in delegate count, Iowa has held a special place in American politics since Jimmy Carter caught fire coming out of there in 1976, a wave he rode to the White House. It's been the subject of intense politicking and advertising ever since. But this time around, it was former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean's early and frequent visits to Iowa--and his decision to begin advertising last June, seven months before the caucus-that really began an arms race in Iowa.

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Dean's early entrance into the race shook the conventional wisdom that U.S. Rep. Richard Gephardt, D-Mo., would easily win the state, as he did in 1988. That caused other things to begin happening in Iowa, which has become a kind of litmus test in politics this year.

"It became this huge campaign between Gephardt and Dean, and because of that, it might have drawn in the other candidates," said Joel Rivlin, deputy director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project at the University of Wisconsin, which studies campaign advertising.

Dean and interest groups working on his behalf spent at least $2.8 million on broadcast TV advertising in Iowa, compared to Gephardt's $2.3 million, according to the Campaign Media Analysis Group. Dean has by far the advantage in campaign fund raising. Tracey said that Dean was probably trying to dictate his opponents' spending.

"What Dean has done with his fund-raising advantage is forcing others to spend more on their media budgets," Tracey said.

It has changed the dynamics of the Iowa caucus, which TV viewers were able to sample last night with "caucus cams" on both CNN and CSPAN. Whereas Iowa used to favor the candidates with the best on-the-ground network, Tracey said that's changing.

"Iowa has traditionally been an organizational state," he said. "Now it's a media state."

What there hasn't been is a lot of ads from Republicans or their interest groups. Since President Bush is unquestionably the nominee, there's no need for a caucus in Iowa or primaries anywhere else. But that doesn't mean that the GOP has been quiet. The Republican National Committee has spent about $49,000 for TV spots supporting the president. Special interest groups have spent about the same for ads, including the Club For Growth, which paid for spots attacking Dean.

For the Democrats, the high level of spending in Iowa has led to questions about whether they got their money's worth for a state that doesn't have a large number of voters participating. Iowa, for instance, can only expect about 20 percent of the registered Democrats to leave their warm homes in the dead of winter and go to the gyms, halls, and private homes where the caucuses are being held throughout Iowa. That compares to New Hampshire, where 70 percent or more of registered Democrats are expected to go to the polls on primary day, Jan. 29.

Rivlin said that traditionally for political advertising, TV has been used for the broadest reach. But conventional wisdom is turned on its head in Iowa.

"In Iowa, you're only trying to speak to a targeted amount," he said. "Only a handful are voting."

It opens up questions regarding where a big media spend is efficient. But, as Rivlin points out, a candidate's media dollar goes further in Iowa where the prices are lower than in New Hampshire, where time must be spent on the big Boston stations because there are limited TV stations in New Hampshire itself.

"If you're going to be inefficient, you might as well be inefficient somewhere cheap, and Iowa is cheap" compared to New Hampshire/Boston, Rivlin said.

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