• Forbes, Monday, March 12, 2007 1:15 PM

A cynic might say that Apple, Inc. is overdue for a flop. The computer maker turned consumer electronics giant has two big products in the offing: an ITV set-top box that should be released later this month, and of course, the iPhone, slated for a June release. The former is certainly the more understated of the two; it's certainly entering a complex market with a wide and varied competitor base. The iPhone, meanwhile, aims to fuse the phone with the portable music player--a market that Apple clearly dominates. Phones that play music files are nothing new, but for many analysts in the mobile wireless field, it's a foregone conclusion that Apple will assume that lead by leveraging its considerable brand power.

Not necessarily, says Forbes columnist Taesik Yoon. For one thing, $500 for 4-gigs and $600 for 8-gigs is a lot of money, and the paltry 10 percent penetration of smart phones in the handset market suggests the public may not be ready, which makes Apple's goal of 10 million units by 2008 look optimistic. Moreover, there certainly will be intense competition in the smart phone market once the public is ready. Just as every tech provider under the sun is going after iTV, the likes of Sony Corp. (maker of the PlayStation Portable) and handset makers Motorola and RIM will be throwing their hats into the smart phone ring. As ever, processing power and storage capacity will increase as prices drop. Just ask Sony; each new device launch is like starting from scratch--for everyone.

Read the whole story at Forbes »