Zenith Optimedia has predicted slow but steady growth in total global advertising budgets for 2007, with a 3.7% increase over last year -- but a 29% growth in Internet spending -- to $33.5 billion.
In 2008, Zenith sees 23% growth in online ad budgets to $41.2 billion, and then a continued slowing of the growth rate in 2009 - up 15% to $47.4 billion. But the overall projected
growth rate for online spending from 2006 to 2009 comes out to 82%, while the rest of the ad market will only grow by 13%.
Broken down by share of ad dollars, Internet budgets will rise from
6.1% last year to 7.4% in 2007, 8.6% in 2008 and 9.4% in 2009, according to Zenith. Just three months ago, the agency placed the last figure at just 8.6%. Zenith attributed the revised projection
to the recent "strong growth in online video ads and local search."
Significantly, according to the global projections, Internet's share of the global advertising pie will pass radio's in 2008,
leaving only television, newspapers and magazines ahead of online.
Domestically, Zenith didn't revise its forecast, which remains at 29% growth for 2007, 19% for 2008, and 7.5% for
2009, but made several observations:
Blue chip marketers will continue to shift ad budgets toward digital media as they begin to fully embrace online as a necessary marketing vehicle.
Online video opportunities will evolve from within as major outlets develop these platforms more easily for marketing purposes.Search Engine Marketing (SEM) is also expected to
experience continued growth as more small businesses embrace online as part of their overall local marketing strategies.In 2008, political candidates are expected to embrace online
opportunities more than in years past. Candidates have become well versed in the power of conversational media, buzz and blogging to shift favorability over a short period of time Global advertising expenditure by medium
US$ million, current prices Currency conversion at 2006
average rates.
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
Newspapers | 120,367 | 125,043 | 127,916 | 131,369 | 135,011 |
Magazines | 52,722 | 54,616 | 56,397 | 58,618 | 61,152 |
Television | 151,191 | 161,389 | 168,988 | 180,318 | 188,759 |
Radio | 34,225 | 35,225 | 36,283 | 37,461 | 39,064 |
Cinema | 1,717 | 1,794 | 1,908 | 2,096 | 2,320 |
Outdoor | 21,944 | 23,948 | 25,685 | 27,615 | 29,718 |
Internet | 19,419 | 26,031 | 33,465 | 41,197 | 47,436 |
Total * | 401,585 | 428,047 | 450,642 | 478,673 | 503,460 |
Source: ZenithOptimedia
* The totals here are lower than the totals in the 'Advertising expenditure by region' table above, since that table includes total adspend figures for a few countries
for which spend is not itemised by medium
Share of total adspend by medium 2005-2009 (%)
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
Newspapers | 30.0 | 29.2 | 28.4 | 27.4 | 26.8 |
Magazines | 13.1 | 12.8 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 12.1 |
Television | 37.6 | 37.7 | 37.5 | 37.7 | 37.5 |
Radio | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
Cinema | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Outdoor | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 |
Internet | 4.8 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 9.4 |