To succeed with the national business media, companies must have a strong sense of the media environment, from trends generating coverage to the state of the media itself. The reason: cultivating the
media is similar to making sales calls – you need to understand how you and your story fit into the reporter's needs.
This year the media is the story. With shake-ups at AOL Time Warner and
significant changes brewing at the FCC, our predictions should help communicators better understand the state of the media world.
The lines between news, entertainment and advertising get even
fuzzier. The networks' morning news programs will increasingly resemble variety shows, featuring interviews, performances and clips by major stars and comeback-staging celebrities. (A recent
morning featured Whitney Houston singing several songs on "Good Morning America" while Mariah Carey sang on "The Today Show.") If war occurs, the networks will cover the initial days with
wall-to-wall coverage. But they will then look at counter-programming to offset the war news with lighter fare. As a recent example, New York City is facing its most serious budget crisis since 1974,
with across-the-board deep spending cuts, a massive increase in property taxes, significant private sector layoffs, especially on Wall St., (which will have a significant trickle-down impact on the
economy). Yet, the recent covers of New York Magazine, which once would have covered this bad news in depth, have been: "The New Rules of Power Dressing" and "Food Fight: Meat vs. Carbs."
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The lines between corporate entities will get even fuzzier, too:
The trend toward
consolidation in broadcast media will continue, as evidenced by the merger talks between ABC and CNN. (The merger has the support of FCC Chairman Michael Powell and his chief supporter, Sen. John
McCain.) Look for consumer advocates to complain about consolidation, pointing out that we will soon get our newspapers, TV and radio news, entertainment and cable/DSL from a handful of corporate
entities (AOL Time Warner, News Corp (Fox), Disney (ABC), GM (NBC), CBS, AT&T, Tribune Co., Clear Channel, etc.) Following the sale of Bravo Networks in 2002, other cable networks will be put
on the block, as some companies seek to reduce debts and others (Viacom, Liberty Media) look to boost market share through acquisitions. Previously some of these networks would have been merged (i.e.
Fox Family Channel was combined with Disney to form the ABCFamily Channel), but digital cable allows more channels to survive. Print-Cable/TV alliances continue: Forbes reporters appear on Fox;
Wall Street Journal reporters appear on CNBC; New York Times continues to co-produce stories with ABC. Increasingly, top reporters at top print news organizations are required to be ready for their
close-ups. Meanwhile, online publications are still struggling to find a way to be profitable. As advertising revenues stay flat or decline, electronic magazines and newspapers increasingly
will move their content into a "pay per view" category, offering basic information for free but charging for "premium" content. Plus, even access to the free information will increasingly require the
reader to "subscribe" to the publication, and while the subscription doesn't always require payment, it does require the user to accept cookies, which results in more of those pop-up ads that
temporarily, but annoyingly, obscure the content on the screen. Conservative vs. liberal media: Conservative pundits, both on cable and radio, will continue to win the ratings game against
their liberal opponents by playing the political "outsider," even while Republicans are in charge of the White House, Senate and House. Liberals may need to find a sane and stable Howard Beale-type to
get "mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it," and find the issues that resonate with the public. The end of reality as we know it: Reality programs will tank in the March sweeps period. A
few will survive, including "Survivor" and another "American Idol," but borrowing from Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, Spiderman, etc., Hollywood and network TV will replace reality programming with
fantasy. In times of uncertainty, people will want distractions; they will want larger than life stories and happier endings. Today's boy bands and their single-girl equivalents will stop
selling as many records as they attempt new "serious" music in a quixotic attempt at credibility. (It's hard to sing to a teen audience when you're approaching AARP membership). The current batch will
stop appearing in so many commercials, but will keep on appearing on countless music-industry award programs and try to launch film careers. The worst news: they will be replaced by other groups
selling to the same lucrative pre-teen audience.