• by John Gaffney , May 29, 2003

Stats Don't Lie: A lot of good news stories get lost in this upfront hoopla. One crossed my desk yesterday. That was the new predictions of ad spending from Merrill Lynch analyst Lauren Rich Fine, who I respect a great deal because she is conservative and very knowledgeable. But I think she's being too conservative. Fine expects overall ad spend growth top be up about 3.3% this year. That's down from an earlier estimate of 3.7 %. First of all, an overall increase of over 3% in such an uncertain economy is a big increase in my book. The overall gross domestic product is only looking at a 1.9% push. I think Fine is short selling the effect that increased spending from entertainment, pharmaceuticals and foreign cars will have on this market. Entertainment will benefit from increased competition in the aftermarket and that means a lot more advertising from not theatrical releases but DVD releases. Entertainment also counts video games. 'Nuff said there. And foreign cars, from what I'm hearing, are taking dead aim at the small truck and SUV market. That will take some heavy advertising to accomplish. For me, ad spending is all about competition in categories. We have three pretty hot ones. I think four percent is conservative this year. Do I hear five?

Flogging A Dead Horse: I have just about worn out a keyboard on the lack of media coverage regarding the FCC rule changes. But I still have to rant about the irrelevance of this late flurry we see now. FCC chairman Michael Powell was on Lou Dobbs' CNN show last night. Where was he last month when the debate still meant something? This is all over but the shouting now.

At The Buzzer: Kills me to hear so much questioning of Nike regarding the payment of $90 million to sign hoops phenom LeBron James. Nike may have made some distribution and sales mistakes over the past few years. But its marketing choices have been impeccable. Last time so many people criticized a big shoe deal the athlete in question was a kid named Jordan.