• by Paul Gough , July 7, 2003

The broadcast networks might have been planning for the Next Big Thing this summer in the fight against a decline in viewership, but less than halfway through the summer season nothing has taken off.

The problem: cable has been killing broadcast in the summer, drawing viewers who don't come back to the networks when they go back to work in the fall. This year's solution: program a mix of new, mostly unscripted series along with selected repeats. See what happens.

"The networks, they're doing what they have to do because over the years, cable has been sifting viewers away from them and it hurts them when the fall starts," said Peter Nembach, associate research director at MediaVest.

That mix of reality-repeat-reality has been going on ever since the 2002-03 TV season officially. They're up year-over-year in viewership, which means that, in the aggregate, something's happening. But look at the Nielsen Media Research ratings over the past month and you'll see one thing above all: Repeats are drawing viewers. At CBS, it's second- or third-plays of CSI, CSI: Miami, Everybody Loves Raymond. NBC has hit the top 10 with repeats and extra plays of the Law & Order franchise.

No one's denying that some reality has drawn viewers this summer. UPN recently renewed America's Next Top Model. Fox's American Juniors has done well, though it hasn't done the monster numbers that a place-filler for American Idol ought to be doing. The WB has scored a mild hit with Boarding House: North Shore, one of its few entries into the reality genre. And NBC has carved out a niche of reality programming, with Fame and For Love and Money.

"For the most part, none of these things have really panned out. I guess they're still waiting for this summer's version of American Idol," said Brad Adgate, senior vice president/director of research at Horizon Media.

There hasn't been any of that so-called lightning in a bottle the networks had been hoping for before the season began. No Survivor that can have millions dreaming of eating bugs in the jungle for money. The Who Wants To Be a Millionaire that can, at least for a few brief months, become the basis for a schedule. Or the American Idol that can surpass them all.

This year, though, lightning has been hard to find, let alone bottle. Adgate thinks that either viewers are getting tired of reality shows or starting to prefer other genres.

"Or maybe they're just bad," Adgate said. "It could be one or the other. Certainly there's enough of them out there that you would think that one of them would strike with viewers."

Nembach said that he's not sure whether viewers are tired of reality programming or just tired of bad reality.

"You can't just put any reality programming out there and it will work. It needs to be entertaining and not sensationalism," Nembach said.

UPN has found a hit - at least for UPN - in America's Next Top Model, which is hosted by supermodel Tyra Banks. It's recently been renewed for another go-round and Nembach said that it's rivaled UPN's top-rated programming so far. He said he wouldn't be surprised if it replaced a sitcom or two on the fall schedule. Over at Fox, the success of American Juniors is about more than just the summer. Fox expects American Juniors to hold the spot for American Idol, which won't return until mid-season.

"It's not doing as well as American Idol. It's doing well, though. It's still helping Fox to hold onto viewers during the summer," Nembach said.

Fox came out of nowhere to win two adult 18-49 sweeps this past television season, and came within inches of toppling NBC in 18-49s for the year. At the end, when it was clear that Fox wouldn't make it, executives wondered aloud of what would have happened if the network's October hadn't been taken up by postseason baseball. Fox's strategy is to go back to the future by premiering some of its shows during the summer, to perhaps build a following before baseball interrupts its schedule.

Adgate and Nembach said the strategy is nothing new for Fox, which premiered late 1980s/early 1990s dramas like Beverly Hills 90210 and Melrose Place in the summer. But times have changed.

"It might have worked 10 year ago but television is so much different than it was 10 years ago, with so many choices and so many more networks. I don't know if that strategy is going to work this time," Adgate said.

Adgate said that broadcast's programming 52 weeks a year is a good sign. It reflects not only television's changing realities but also a marketer's needs.

"People buy products 52 weeks a year. There are a ton of products that need to advertise during the summer months, whether it's movies or soft drinks or cars or real estate," he said.