• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, August 2, 2010

TV viewers tune away twice as much during commercial breaks in shows with low ratings than they do during commercial breaks in higher-rated shows. That's one of the surprising conclusions of a first-of-its-kind analysis of data comparing Nielsen's ratings estimates to actual TV tuning behavior derived from digital TV set-top devices. The analysis, which is being conducted by Havas' MPG unit, is part of a process by the agency to develop models that can be used by advertisers and agencies to incorporate digital set-top data into the way they plan, buy and evaluate television.

"We're discovering some interesting patterns," says Joe Abruzzo, executive vice president-director of research at MPG North America, who says he has a preliminary working model, and is continuing to refine it to make it better, and more predictable.

While other correlations between Nielsen's ratings and digital set-top data have been done before, what makes the MPG analysis noteworthy, is that it is working with data based on one of its clients actual media buys, results of an 11-day advertising schedule MPG ran for client Carnival Cruises in July.

In the analysis, Abruzzo is comparing the Nielsen ratings delivery for that schedule with data provided by Kantar Research's DirectView service, which is based on actual digital set-top turning data from satellite TV provider DirecTV.

Abruzzo says he's still fiddling with the analysis and the model he is building from it, but he says some early patterns are beginning to emerge. MPG will present detailed findings at its next Collaborative Alliance meeting on Sept. 23rd in New York, but Abruzzo says the most noteworthy patterns so far have to do with when, where and how viewers tune away from TV commercials.

In addition to the fact that viewers tune away from commercials in low-rated shows about twice as much as they do in high-rated shows, Abruzzo says that commercials televised in high-definition TV programs tend to hold viewers better than programs airing in standard definition. Abruzzo says the finding appears to back up the claim of HDnet founder and owner Mark Cuban that high-definition TV programming creates a better environment for advertisers.

Abruzzo says other logical patterns are beginning to emerge, such as the fact that certain types of programming differ in their ability to hold viewers during commercial breaks. Not surprisingly, Abruzzo says transient programming such as shows televised by the Travel Channel and the Weather Channel tend to lose viewers during breaks, while programming on A&E and PBS have "very low tune-away."

Abruzzo says he will continue to experiment with his modeling techniques, but says that the findings so far have proven "consistent."

One potentially troubling finding for the TV advertising marketplace, he says, is the fact that most of the channel switching activity he has come across takes place during the first commercial position in a commercial break. Those positions, historically, have been considered the most valuable ones to have in a commercial break.