• by Paul Gough , April 9, 2004

Major media companies will begin their round of quarterly earnings reports today as the media industry looks for signs that the advertising market climbed further into recovery as 2004 started.

Few companies are expected to have barn-burning first quarters, as most of the media sectors have had relatively quiet beginnings to 2004. Broadcast and cable television remain affected by a scatter market that has been soft since last fall. Newspapers have seen increases in some categories--notably, help wanted in a lot of areas--and some groups such as Gannett have seen stronger-than-average increases. Others, like The New York Times Co., still aren't getting the results they need in New York and Boston (the site of their flagship papers) to call a recovery. Radio, after a downturn in the fourth quarter that continued into this year, reported mostly flat results recently in both national and local ads.

But hope springs eternal, with the 6 percent or greater improvement in the ad market likely to occur in the third and fourth quarters, as the economy is expected to improve and the impact of the Olympics and the November presidential and Congressional elections is predicted to boost advertising in TV and tighten other markets as well.

One player in the media industry--NBC's parent company General Electric--kicked off the earnings-report season Thursday. NBC's revenues rose 8 percent in the first quarter, from $1.4 billion in 2003 to $1.5 billion in the same three-month period ending March 31. The weakness in the scatter market felt in much of TV continued in the first quarter, where NBC's scatter prices were about 2 percent over the record-breaking upfront levels.

Bright spots were NBC's "Apprentice" and continued growth at Bravo and Telemundo. The NBC-Universal merger should close in May, the company said.

This week will kick off with New York Times Co. and Gannett on Monday. Both have substantial newspaper holdings, as well as broadcast stations that should provide a look at how spot television has been doing. Wednesday will put E.W. Scripps Co. in the spotlight, a company that has newspaper and local television holdings, and also HGTV, Food Network, and the other Scripps Network channels. Thursday will bring results from Tribune Co., with extensive TV and newspaper units and an equity stake in The WB, along with pure-play newspaper companies Knight Ridder and McClatchy and radio and TV station owner Emmis Communications Corp. Friday will close with Pulitzer Inc., another newspaper company.

Look for:

* Strong results from Gannett, publisher of USA Today and a host of other newspapers, along with a portfolio of local TV stations. Gannett has been leading the newspaper industry with strong results in January and February; advertising in February at its newspapers and TV stations helped to increase Gannett's revenues by 7 percent.

* What happens to New York Times Co., whose other newspapers and TV stations have been dragged by the slow economy in its two major markets, New York and Boston.

* The position in help wanted, national, and retail ad categories for the other newspaper companies. Some observers are predicting an upswing--finally--in help wanted, but national and retail ads remain spotty.

* More clues to the health of the spot TV market, through Tribune, New York Times Co., E.W. Scripps, and Gannett.

* There should be some lift in the first quarter as a result of the Democratic primaries for the companies who have TV stations there. But spot TV won't start to catch fire until later in 2004, when the Olympics and general elections provide the quadrennial boost.