• by Wayne Friedman , April 12, 2007

Thanks to DVR playback, some high-profile prime-time shows aren't losing as much ground as first believed. But will advertisers pay more for those extra viewers next year?

This season, DVR playback viewership gains for network shows are more glaring than ever. For instance, ABC's "Lost," which seemingly has been losing ground with low 5.0 ratings/13 share average rating in its 10 p.m. time slot, is actually earning a 6.2/16 when including DVR playback after seven days. That's a hefty and eye-popping 24% rise; this season-to-date data from Nielsen is through April 8.

The second-best earner is the category is NBC's "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip," where its 3.0/8 average seasonal numbers are actually a 3.6/9, a 20% gain when including DVR viewership.

Fox's "Prison Break" and "24", which supposedly slipped versus last year, are actually 18% higher with DVR playback, with a 3.9/10 and a 5.4/12, respectively. Fox's two other dramas long off the schedule--"Justice" and "The O.C."--gained 19% with DVR.

NBC had nine shows in the top 20, the most of any network: "Heroes" and "The Office" up 18%; "Las Vegas," a 16% hike; "Friday Night Lights," "The Apprentice 6" and "My Name is Earl" fared 15% better.

CW's "One Tree Hill" improved 17%.

Some shows that benefited the least from DVR viewership include live sports events: NBC's "Sunday Night Football" and ABC's college "Saturday Night Football," which got a 2% and 4% gain, respectively.

As a group, dramas--especially serialized dramas--were the most recorded for playback. At the other end, many sitcoms received virtually no improvement, including: "George Lopez," "Family Guy," "Girlfriends," "Help Me Help You," "Everybody Hates Chris," "Big Day," and "Reba." With five weeks to go before real upfront negotiations begin, networks will be using this information to push for deals that include these extra viewings. But media agency executives probably won't bite.

Just like last year, many agencies appear to be closing ranks, insisting they want deals based on live-only ratings. Nielsen's DVR-included ratings have now been available for almost 18 months, which may argue a stability for trend analysis.

The hesitancy comes because media agency executives want to move to the next step--commercial ratings. Nielsen will debut that data at the end of May. But it will come too late for many executives to be considered and evaluated for upfront deals in this year's market.