• by Wayne Friedman , June 7, 2007

The upfront business is starting to rumble as media agencies and networks are clarifying their positions and registering budgets.

A number of media agencies, such as Group M and others, have registered their clients' money with some networks. Others, such as Initiative Media, are getting ready to do the same in 48 hours. Group M and Initiative spokesmen declined to comment.

In addition, several executives say some media agencies may be ready--in part--to back off their demands for deals based solely on live commercial ratings plus three nights of DVR playback for some cable networks. Some agencies may do a combination of deals.

The reason for the late switch: Many small cable networks don't have all the necessary Nielsen services in place, such as NPower, to determine minute-by-minute ratings, which Nielsen plans to use to base its new commercial ratings service.

The change would be a victory of sorts for cable networks, which have voiced their displeasure over the inaccuracy of Nielsen's new commercials ratings service. Cable executives have pointed to a number of problems, including Nielsen's inability to distinguish local from national commercials.

Cable executives have insisted that it would be better to sell inventory based on program ratings this year--just as they have for many years--until the kinks are worked out. Viacom executives have already voiced their support for selling off of program ratings for this upfront for its networks, including MTV, VH1, Comedy Central, and others.

Still, broadcast networks are first on the agenda, with both buyers and sellers ready to start doing deals by the end of this week, and certainly, for the beginning of next week.

Media agencies suggest many "translations" of data will take place during this upfront. They will try to determine a client's base price for a particular program based on what would have been this past season's deals based on commercial ratings. All this finessing needs to be done to project increases for the upcoming upfront market.

Even then, media agencies executives say it can be a confusing market. Some are saying commercial ratings cost-per-thousand viewer prices--CPMs--might be 2% to as much as 5% higher than a year ago. But many wonder whether the same will be true for deals based on program ratings.