• by Wayne Friedman , June 13, 2007

In four years, DVRs will be in almost 35% of U.S. television households and 40.3 million homes, according to new estimates from media agency Magna Global USA.

Magna says this will be just about double the number of homes it estimated for the end of this year--20.2 million homes and 18.5% of U.S. TV households. Magna Global notes that the new estimates consist of individual set-top box DVR units, as well as those that reside at the cable head-end.

In addition, Magna Global estimates that Video on Demand will also nearly double in four years--getting into 62.8 million homes, about 54.3% of U.S. TV households, and reaching 95.8% of all cable and telco subscribers. The agency estimates that by the end of this year, VOD will be in 28.7% of TV households.

But the leader in on-demand digital platforms will be broadband access, which will rise to 92 million homes in four years, from the 59 million estimated in March 2007.

The largest cable operator in the land will figure prominently in many on-demand areas. Comcast Corp. now has 3.2 million DVR homes--about 13.2% of its total customer base. Comcast also has the leading VOD service, says Magna, taking in 203 million VOD views in March 2007, and 219 million views in April 2007--up 41% and 71% respectively from a year ago.

Magna also says satellite distributors DirecTV and EchoStar continue to grow. DirecTV has 4.2 million DVR households or 25.7% of its total subscribers; EchoStar is a bit better off with 4.8 million DVR homes or 35.9% of its total subscribers.