• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 14, 2007

Retailers have never said the back-to-school sales period is a slam-dunk. But this year, thanks to heat waves throughout the country, a shift toward more consumer electronics spending and changes in teen shopping patterns, retail executives are sifting through more than the usual number of tea leaves.

The NPD Group, Inc., for example, says this year's spending is all "about timing and alternatives." Only 18%, or one-fifth of shoppers in its poll, say they had begun their shopping before Aug. 1--a dramatic shift from the prior year, when one-third had started in July.

About 76% of survey respondents plan to spend $500 or less--down 5% from last year, its survey finds. School supplies are on their shopping lists, followed by clothes, shoes, and electronics. And contrary to other surveys, which have predicted softer apparel sales, NPD is anticipating an upswing in apparel and footwear.

Richard Hastings, an analyst who follows retail for Bernard Sands, disagrees. "We've seen good spending on sports gear and technology, but apparel has been negatively impacted by the weather. And given the heat waves in August, clothing sales will be hurt even more."

When no one expects it to cool off until the end of September, he says, no one feels like buying sweaters and jackets for kids. "Even jeans, which we've seen good sales on so far, are affected--kids don't want to buy heavier-weight fabrics when it's hot out," he says.

The teen trend toward layering--piling on more or fewer tank tops and T-shirts--rather than reaching for cold-weather clothes, also has an impact on sales, he says.

It all adds up to more pressure on retailers to draw families into the store. "So they become more promotional and offer more markdowns," Hastings says.

At American Eagle Outfitters, for example, which last week announced an unexpected decline in monthly results, "all jeans are on sale," says its Web site. At J.C Penney, back-to-school sales are offering shoppers from 20 to 50% off. And even at Kohl's, which last week said sales of back-to-school items look promising, backpacks are already 20% to 50% off, with massive two-for-one deals in kids clothing.