• by Wayne Friedman , December 9, 2008

NBC's move to put Jay Leno in prime time could make it easier for content-sensitive advertisers to buy into his 10 p.m. time-period show, as well as draw in more branded entertainment deals. But buyers may not want to pay more for it.

"It's safe programming--it may open the door for some [content-sensitive] advertisers," says Jordan Breslow, director of broadcast research for Group M's Mediacom. "It may also bring in some late-night advertisers."

Given the current popular appeal for "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno," where content is relatively less risky than other networks' late-night talk shows, analysts expect his likeability and format to continue in the 10 p.m. time period. That could be good news for nervous TV advertisers who are concerned about content.

It also means perhaps more product placement and branded entertainment deals--something Ben Silverman, co-chairman of NBC Entertainment and Universal Media Studios has pushed for every new show he has launched.

"You will get more live commercials," says Gibbs Haljun, managing director of media investment of North America for Group M's Mediaedge:cia. "It may evolve where you get more branded entertainment deals. But you need to have the right balance."

The biggest concern for media executives is the pricing of the new Leno show. Will it be priced like "The Tonight Show"--as a late-night show--or will it be priced as part of a package of other prime-time shows? "Will it be an efficiency play?" asks Haljun.

Another big question is whether Leno can lift his "Tonight Show" cost-per-thousand 18-49 viewers [CPM] price up to the prime-time levels, says Jason Kanefksy, senior vice president and group account director for MPG. Late-night cost-per-thousand can be 30% lower than in prime time.

"That's the great debate," says Kanefsky. "If his numbers are flat versus the time period, why should I pay the same amount of [prime-time CPM] money? You are selling me essentially the same thing."

Overall, media buyers are mixed on Leno's future.

"I don't think it's a great move," says Mediacom's Breslow. "They hit the panic button. This is due, in part, to a [weakening] economy. In part, this is because of last year's writers' strike. They still have a lot of programming holes to fill."

Haljun agrees: "They have eliminated risk but not added much upside." He believes a lot will ride on what guests Leno secures. Haljun says: "If Coldplay is going to be on, you might have a greater opportunity to get some sampling."

Breslow, as well as other media executives, worry about whether Leno might steal away guests from Conan O'Brien, who will replace Leno on the "Tonight Show" in fall 2009. Breslow says big-time celebrity guests would want bigger early-evening viewership.