• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 15, 2008

Although shoppers were more enthusiastic than many expected over the Thanksgiving weekend, the National Retail Federation reports that consumers were remarkably restrained the rest of the month. Retail industry sales gained just 0.6% from October, and decreased 2% compared to last November. 

The NRF's figures exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants. The latest figures from the U.S. Commerce Department, which do include autos, gasoline stations and restaurants, are considerably more downbeat. Those figures include a 9% drop from last year, and a 1.8% fall from October.

And other measures are even gloomier. MasterCard's Spending Pulse--which tracks national retail and service sales based on the MasterCard payments network, as well as estimates for other payment types--says that retail sales fell 19% in the first part of the month, with the rate of decline slowing by mid-month. And while spending increased on Black Friday, sales quickly settled back into declines in the 15%-25% range.

Part of the problem is simple timing. "Thanksgiving came too late in the month for retailers to see strong November sales," the NRF says. "With five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, the holiday season will come down to December's performance."

But the weak economy and reluctant consumers continue to plague most categories. A few exceptions include electronics and appliance stores sales, which gained 2.8% from October (but still represent a fall of 5.4% from last year) and clothing and accessories stores, which saw an increase of 0.8% from October (but still fell 7.4% from last November.)

The NRF reaffirmed its forecast of a puny 2.2% for the holiday season, but poor weather in December likely put an even greater dent in holiday sales.

"Usually, the impact of storms like these would be short-term in nature," says Jordan Rizzuto, senior economic analyst with Storm Exchange, a New York-based company that measures weather's impact on businesses. "Certainly, the year-over-year comparisons will be weak for this weekend and through this week, and then typically rebound to normal levels. But these times are anything but normal," he says. "Overall, this will have a negative impact on an already weak shopping outlook."