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Kids' Upfront to Close Down 10-15%

The kids' upfront is expected to finish this week with volume down as much as 10% to 15% -- a far cry from the optimistic flat-to-2% prediction several executives first gave the press back in February.

The reason for the disappointment can be given in two words: toy sales. Category leader Mattel's net sales were off a whopping 19% year over year during the second quarter of 2009, following a 6% slide in the first quarter. The dip was mainly due to sluggish sales of Barbie and other major brands.

Market leader Nickelodeon is expected to finish with upfront CPM pricing decreases on par with the cable-market average of 3% to 4%. Cartoon Natwork is taking rollbacks in the 4%-to-7% range. Disney XD, the rebranded network formerly known as Toon Disney could finish the upfront with an increase in spending, thanks to ratings increases and marketplace demand.

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