Commentary
Fair Warning
- by November 29, 2000
A release from Reuters, as reported in excite.com news, says that growth rates are forecasted to slow and unemployment seen rising as seen by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
In its quarterly Survey of Professionals, the Philadelphia Fed said gross domestic product (GDP) would average 3.3 percent in 2001. This is a decline from the 5.2 percent growth rate forecasters expect for this year.
Along with the slowdown in growth, the economists said the nation's jobless rate would average 4.2 % in 2001 vs. a 30-year low of 3.9 % now. Forecasters said the jobless rate would be at 4.0 % for 2000.
The Philadelphia Fed also said that consumer price increases should slow next year, partly because oil prices are expected to come down in the months ahead to $31.50 in the first quarter from close to $35 today.
The consumer price index (CPI), which measures the change in prices at the consumer level in a broad range of goods, should rise 2.7 percent in 2001 after an expected 3.4 percent increase this year, forecasters said. For this year, the rise in oil prices was expected to add 0.2 percentage points to the core CPI.
And, the forecasters made no changes to their long-term outlook, putting long-term inflation at 2.5 percent as measured by the 10-year average annual rate of change in the CPI.
