Rumors abound that Comcast has little interest in the NBC Network and NBC stations --- a point this column, along with others, has speculated about for some time.
The current TV state of affairs id this: Universal Media Studios works not only because it can put programming on cable networks like USA Network, but because it also sells big broadcast network programs that still get higher advertising prices than they would on cable networks.
Having strong broadcasting distribution platforms helps to amortize TV production and marketing costs. That's why "Law & Order: SVU" can help NBC -- and USA Network in reruns.
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To some extent, it would be better to keep the NBC network -- even in the short term -- and figure out a way to turn it into a cable network, now, before it loses any more steam.
NBC should be more valuable on a per-subscriber fee basis than many broad-based cable entertainment networks. Even in its weakened state, NBC still offers big marketing support for any consumer brand -- including the Comcast brand.
Would Comcast really want to part with this all in the hope that digital video platforms -- cable, Internet, mobile -- are going to make up the difference?
And here's another thing: In the short term, who would buy a broadcast network (and/or its TV stations) without a TV and film studio? So you'd better have one already. This means Sony Pictures Entertainment and Time Warner (who has already said it isn't interested in NBC). Maybe Lionsgate.
Detractors of synergistic media consolidation have had their say about Comcast and a possible NBC deal. Selling some NBC TV assets would help keep these critics -- and Comcast shareholders -- at bay.
But if Comcast is really only interested in mostly the TV-film production operations and cable properties USA Network, Syfy, Bravo, and Oxygen -- and maybe Hulu -- aren't they overpaying, as well as having the headache of selling off media properties in a weak economy?
If you really believe in the long-discredited idea of media synergy and all that it brings, you need a big TV distribution place to support content for your future ventures -- at least for the short term.
Read the book Bob Garfield wrote this year about the rosy future for broadcast TV. It's called The Chaos Scenario and it's plenty of cold water in the face of those who think the media world is not changing all that much.
All the feel-good studies from Poltrack or Nielsen can't beat down the basic message: Advertising supported media are doomed.
Here's a magic word for this or anything buying anything: DEBT, the more you've got, the less you have.