Commentary
The Mobile Game Changer: The Next Generation
- by John Capone , January 11, 2010
With the big news that Leno is moving back out to late night percolating through the wires this weekend, the bigger picture came out of CES, buried amid gizmos and smart-Fords and tablets: Regardless of when or where Leno, Conan and Fallon air, it might be your phone that's delivering them to your TV sooner than you think.
If mobile is changing everything, then the next evolution, the rise of 4G networks, will change everything for mobile. So says Josh Lovison, mobile practice lead at IPG's Emerging Media Lab. "It's promising home broadband speeds to mobile computing experience," he told Ad Adge. And what that is going to bring consumers is "a ubiquity of experience between your home -- even a television viewing experience -- and your mobile phone. In fact, looking a few years down the road, your mobile phone might actually be what's your powering your TV in terms of your connection."
Verizon announced at CES that it is rolling out LTE -- which stands for Long Term Evolution -- in 30 cities by the end of 2010, which Lovison puts into perspective by comparing it to the leap home computing took when it went from dial-up to broadband access.
And so begins the race for dominance, with the questions of iPhones, Nexuses, and Droids far overshadowed by what will be powering them and telecoms could become the new gatekeepers. Verizon will be hot off the line, with its LTE network already being tested in certain areas. And AT&T is also developing an LTE network. Sprint Nextel demoed its own leap forward, the Overdrive mobile WiMax hotspot, at CES, which operates at about 10 times the speed of 3G networks.
However, Lovison reports that the LG LTE network demonstrated at CES was pulling down data about 8 times faster than broadband speeds, so forget about how much faster than 3G it is. The LTE networks will be the new standard, he says.
Having worked in and around the mobile space for nearly 15 years, I am always a little skeptical when someone announce that they have the next game changer. This case is no exception.
I do believe that within the next five years we will start to see much greater use of mobile devices for rich media consumption. However, I am not convince that we are at or near a tipping point leading to mass adoption.
Widespread adoption of new mobile offerings will not only depend upon what the wireless carriers do, but also upon the successful deployment of the competing wireless technologies.
Unfortunately, due to the cost of deploying next generation technologies, the major US carriers tend to move only as fast as their next big competitor does. Therefore, we will not see any significant deployments at reasonable prices for consumers until services like ClearWire's Clear are deployed enough to be a threat to the carriers' revenue sources.
James, I respectfully disagree. Convergence is inevitable. Disruption is the future. In hardware and in service providers. Carriers be damned. The tipping point already happened - when Apple released the iPhone 3 years ago.
I used to play music through a stereo with a turntable. Now it's on my phone.
I used to use a PC to surf the web. Now I do that on my phone.
I used to take pictures with a 35mm film camera. Now I do that on my phone.
I used to watch TV on a Sony Trinitron that weighed more than a Sumo wrestler. Why wouldn't I want this on my phone?
I stream movies to my PC. Why wouldn't I want to do this to my phone, like, say, when I'm waiting in line at the DMV and need to take my mind off the smelly guy next to me?
My point? All content got mobile and it happened in a little over a decade.
The 4G carriers are the new cable companies. If they're not smart enough to realize this then they deserve to be crushed by WiMax.
Chris, the reason people do not use their phone to surf the web, watch TV, take pictures, stream movies and more is because they can't see it and what they can, eye strain severly limits usage time. Let's not forget how many people cannot afford the $30+ per month and in multiples for family units. Mobile is a great tool for short catch ups. When phones are larger for larger screens, you will see more adaptable functions.