• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, May 6, 2010

Now on the verge of another TV upfront advertising season, with all the projections that it will seem just like a "regular" upfront with some price increases, one question lurks in the background: Are traditional TV executives running scared of digital?

Digital video executives will tell you this is absolutely true. Trouble is, we have been hearing these crying-wolf calls for many years now.

Big TV groups could, if they wanted to, easily turn on the spigot of high-quality TV programming. But they don't. This isn't 1980, when profits margins were booming. That was the time to experiment, when a full-scale Internet/digital platform was just a dream.

Now it's impossible to find TV businesses with 50% profit margins any more -- so networks play it safe. NBC Digital, for example, will do web-only series -- but only if a major show sponsor comes in tow.

Digital isn't the current traditional TV business model, where a proven distribution system -- broadcast, cable, or syndication -- will give a show some level of audience, which in turn will attract national TV advertisers to the table.

But put that same show on the Internet, and there will be different results. Getting a web-only show an audience of scale can be a much riskier proposal. Virtually any traditional TV show -- even poor performers like, say, the NBC lineup on Friday night -- will get you some audience: 4 million, 7 million, or 9 million viewers.

Put that same show on even the best of digital platforms -- Hulu.com, YouTube.com, or TV.com, even with TV promo show marketing -- and you can get what amounts to almost no viewers.

What TV advertiser wants to play in that market?

Traditional TV marketers get viewer guarantees from broadcast, syndication and cable. What do you get from Internet video sellers? Perhaps another chance to sponsor another series? All that sounds way too risky.

Predictability and lower risks make it easy for traditional TV networks to make this call. That said, the traditional TV model is cracking -- and there's the scare.

Should digital executives give those marketers guarantees similar to what traditional TV guys dole out? How would that work? Perhaps digital video operators could just throw cold water on potential big-media deals, giving sponsors no guarantees, and see which sponsors don't pass out from the shock of it all.