• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, September 12, 2001

A survey of 31 prominent economists polled by the National Association of Business Economists, or NABE, in its latest quarterly study finds that "two-thirds of the NABE panelists expect an economic recovery to begin before year-end," according to Harvey Rosenblum, the NABE president-elect. He continued, however, that the group "continues to revise down its forecast for economic growth in 2002 and the remainder of the year."

The panelists lowered their projected growth of U.S. gross domestic product for 2001 as a whole to 1.6%, down from 2.0%. And for 2002, the panel reduced its growth projection to 2.7%, down from 3.1%. The survey projects a 2% contraction in business investment in 2001, followed by a 1% increase in 2002.

In contrast to the woes of companies, the economists surveyed expect consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of economic demand, to grow by 3% in 2001, slightly more than anticipated in the previous survey. A major chunk of this spending will be concentrated in the home-building business, which continues to do well.