• by January 3, 2002

2002 has finally arrived and I’ve bid 2001 a “good riddance” adieu. But before I completely file away the year that was, I do want to reflect on some compelling Net proof points from the year gone by.

For one thing, we’ve witnessed the Critical Mass impact of the Net in delivering on the promise of global connectivity. While we haven’t yet witnessed the defining Super Bowl moment in terms of putting online advertising on the map, if we look really closely we can spot several moments of truth in which substantial aggregated reach is visible. Some examples include the Victoria Secret and the SI Swimsuit events.

With the continued consolidation of a fragmented landscape, we can anticipate a much clearer portfolio of media properties to emerge. We need only look at some of the offline scenarios for illumination. We should end up with a number much larger than the cable stations or magazine titles, but significantly lower than the current five-figure number of sites that accept advertising.

One of the major winners in 2001 was undoubtedly e-mail. Kudos to the proclaimed killer-app for continuing to set the standards for Web-based communication. The number of emails sent out daily has eclipsed the number of physical letters (snail-mail) for a long time now. According to eMarketer, 206 billions letters were mailed versus 536 billion emails which were sent in 2000.

Having said that, I’m a firm believer that email - as we know it today - will become akin to the telegram (remember that?) – being replaced with a much richer experience, involving multimedia and personal video. I’ll expand on this thought in the near future, but in the interim, consider the length of the average email you write today, versus the first few months you used the Internet.

Proof of the shrinking email syndrome is evidenced in one of the emerging stars of 2001: Instant Messaging. Whether used personally or professionally, IM has proven its worth in providing an outlet for Real Time conversation and interaction.

An interesting benefit of IM is the ability to inject one of the missing ingredients into the Net recipe: emotion. According to the Pew Internet researchers, close to 13MM teens (74%) use instant messaging, with a full 20% saying IM is the main way they deal with friends (WOW!) In fact, 17% have used IM to ask someone out or break up.

This morning I even found out how one of my colleagues was proposed to over IM.

We’re also witnessing the introduction of a new language of hieroglyphic “emoticons” to add context and meaning to IM conversations, as well as a growing list of abbreviations and acronyms to help speed up the communication process.

2002 promise a host of new opportunities to marketers in terms of wrapping their offerings in the context of richer, more functional IM environments. Yahoo!

Last, but definitely not least, e-commerce ended the year in a big way. Q4 hit full stride with a robust Thanksgiving weekend, culminating in a very healthy last minute Holiday shopping sales period.

Yahoo! sales volume rose 75% in the Thanksgiving holiday weekend over a year ago. Friday sales amongst the established retailing giants reinforced this trend: Wal-Mart saw a 132% increase to 355,011 shoppers, followed by Target.com, which attracted 312,000 shoppers, or a 152% gain. Kmart's Bluelight.com saw 227,000 shoppers, a 227% increase.

And Masha reported yesterday that the Jupiter Media Metrix Online Shopping Index increased 57% in the week before Christmas versus the same week last year, climbing from 31.8 million to 49.9 million unique visitors.

Contributing factors to the e-commerce boom include seasonal weather, a continuing cocooning trend exacerbated by September 11, integrated communications support and ever-increasing usage to both dial-up and broadband.

However, there is one other reason which I believe is profound. Simply put, people are more comfortable than ever before in terms of using the Net either directly (e-commerce) or indirectly (online influenced offline purchases)

In 2000, Jupiter reported that online behavior is closer related to tenure, than to traditional demographic indicators. Today, we’re witnessing the results of experience and word-of-mouth network effects on the buy-side, together with an all-round better offering and shopping experience on the sell-side. All this strongly suggests that 4th quarter results are not likely to be a flash in the pan.

Let’s take a moment to gaze upon the cloud of 2001’s silver lining, as it moves on to reveal the newly formed rainbow that is 2002.

- Joseph Jaffe is Director of Interactive Media at TBWA\Chiat\Day in New York, where he works with clients including Kmart, ABSOLUT Vodka, New York City Public Schools, Embassy Suites and Sci-Fi. His primary focus is to highlight interactive's value and benefit in meeting his clients' integrated business and branding objectives.