Commentary

Newspaper Advertising To Rise 5.7% In 2003

Newspaper Advertising To Rise 5.7% In 2003

Lucia Moses, writing for Editor and Publisher, reports that Miles E. Groves, chief economist at the Barry Group consultancy says newspaper advertising revenue in 2003 will advance 5.69%, to $46.6 billion, following two years of declines. Groves has become more pessimistic in his outlook since August, when he called for 6.4% growth in 2003.

At the same time, Groves has revised his forecast for this year, from an advance of 1.54% to a decline of 0.47%. In his latest report, he cited the impact of terrorism, the threat of war, corporate scandals, and the lack of business investment as key factors in 2002's results.

For 2003, he predicted national advertising would lead the gains, percentage wise, increasing 8.11%, to $7.67 billion. It would be followed by classified, up 6.09%, to $16.7 billion -- bolstered by a mid-year pickup in help-wanted ads -- and retail, up 4.58%, to $22.22 billion.

Groves also predicted positive newspaper readership trends would continue and that federal media cross-ownership rules would change by May.

Source: Editor & Publisher Online

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