Ingrid Chung wrote that programmers are expected to increasingly "flex their muscles" vis-à-vis Netflix, and "make it incrementally harder" for the service to get content rights. But unless another option emerges that is willing to pay programmers more for their content, Netflix still offers a critical revenue stream.
Barring "a worthy competitor ... to either bid away or bid up the price of content, we believe that content owners will still gain and grow the overall revenue pie for themselves by selling their catalog content to Netflix," Chung wrote.
Despite the setbacks, Netflix shares continued to rise last week, closing at about $230.
Showtime said this summer it would not allow Netflix to stream any episodes of its currently running series, while Starz said episodes of its original series, such as the coming "Camelot," will not be made available for 90 days after air.
The Showtime matter may be more onerous than the Starz challenge. Chung wrote that consumers don't come to Netflix for speedily released content -- something Netflix has said itself.
On Starz, Chung said Netflix has a deal with Epix, where its content has a 90-day delay and "has gone unnoticed by consumers."
Chung also wrote: "Both Showtime and Starz are contemplating streaming their first-run content on their respective 'TV Everywhere' channels. We believe that content owners are leaving money on the table if they stream exclusively through authentication."