• by Larry Dobrow , March 8, 2004

Young male viewers are continuing their exodus from network TV, according to a new report from a top media shop that reveals another lesser publicized, but equally profound shift appears to be taking place in the TV universe. Slightly older men are actually watching more network TV.

The report, based on an analysis of January TV viewing data by Carat Insight, shows that the erosion of young male viewing--both for teens and for men 18-to-34--which began with the start of the fall TV season has continued through January. However, as opposed to the frantic tenor of other reports, Carat was quick to note that the decreases in teen and 18-to-34 viewership have been at least partially offset by gains among the 35-to-49 crowd. Similarly, the agency found that the declines are largely confined to network viewing.

In other words, it's possible that everything you've been hearing about the disappearance of male viewers may have been a bit overstated. "It's natural to highlight the negatives, but 35-49 is going up, and that's something we should be paying more attention to," says Carat Insight Vice President, Research Director Rob Frydlewicz. "People say that 18-to-49 isn't changing all that much, but what they're missing is that 18-34 and 35-49 may be pulling in opposite directions."

Analyzing 11 dayparts, Carat found that viewership among 35-to-49-year-old men in January was up 5 percent over the year-ago period. Among male teens and 18-to-34-year-old men, viewership dropped, respectively, 7 and 6 percent. Frydlewicz, however, doesn't view this as the tragedy that many of his peers do. "[35-to-49-year-olds] are at a point in their careers where they're starting to make more money. They're more stable in their interests, maybe more stable in their lives," he notes. "This is a bad thing?"

To show how some age-focused marketers may be missing the point, Frydlewicz pointed to Super Bowl viewing levels. Although the game's overall household rating jumped 2 percent over 2003 levels, viewership among male teens (down 4 percent) and 18-to-34 men (down 13 percent) tumbled--and judging from the variety and tone of the day's commercials, it was precisely the latter audience in which marketers seemed most interested.

Still, Frydlewicz is hesitant to suggest that men in the 35-to-49 range might at some point become frustrated by the attention lavished by networks and marketers on their younger peers. "If you start attracting one type of audience, you'll lose another type," he shrugs. "That's just common sense. I don't know how many programs there are that lift everybody up."

As for the disparity between viewership drops in network and cable programming, Carat analysis revealed that in January, prime time viewing of network affiliates among male teens plunged 19 percent. Viewing of ad- supported cable, however, jumped 7 percent over January 2003 levels. The same trend held among 18-to-34 (network down 24 percent, cable up 6 percent) and 35-to-49 men (network down 2 percent, cable up 20 percent).

Ad-supported cable viewership dropped during the weekend among several key audiences, including male and female teens and 18-to-34-year-old men. Frydlewicz attributes this to--what else?--the glut of entertainment options. "Weekends are the peak time for video games and DVDs," he notes.

Carat Insight's analysis of February viewership levels will be unveiled in April.