• by Paul Gough , March 9, 2004

One of the nation's biggest newspapers--and a key indicator of the strength of national advertising--acknowledged Monday that the first two months of 2004 haven't been as strong as last year.

The New York Times Co. avoided giving updated guidance on ad revenues for the first quarter and full year, saying that an update would be provided before the end of the month. But January's numbers, the most recent available, haven't been great for the newspaper industry. Consumer magazines and radio have also shown signs of weakness in the first few months.

"The first quarter [of 2003] was very strong for us, particularly January and February," says Janet Robinson, chief operating officer, who will become chief executive officer in less than a year. "A lot of branding campaigns took place during that time, so we are off to a softer start [in 2004]." She says that several branding campaigns that ran last year have been postponed until later this year. Robinson spoke during Monday's Bear Stearns & Co. media conference, which was held in Palm Beach, Fla., and made available via Webcast.

But things weren't all downbeat. Robinson said key national categories have been strong, including travel/hotels, telecom, financial services/banking, and factory automotive. She said a still-unnamed luxury automotive line will buy 32 pages in the New York Times Magazine, a deal that will be announced later this week. The company's performance in retail has been boosted by several long-term contracts. Classified--particulary employment at the Boston Globe and other regional newspapers--has started to turn positive, although in some of the larger markets like New York, there hasn't been a year-over-year gain yet. There is softness in real estate, particuarly in New York, Robinson says.

"If you look around the industry, the January numbers were somewhat uneven," says Leonard Forman, chief executive officer. "This is a very slow macro ad environment ... and until we've got six months of solid, decent numbers, not just our company but the economy, we're going to see softness."