• by Paul Gough , April 6, 2003

Despite prewar exuberance that the upfront might surpass last year's record $8 billion, uncertainties surrounding the war are going to affect at least the beginning of the TV buying season.

That's the belief of some people in the advertising industry, who have been watching with increasing worry about the effects the war in Iraq might have on the TV market. Before the war, you couldn't be in a discussion about the upfront without hearing about how demand would be even hotter than last year. After the cruise missile strike on Baghdad that started the war in Iraq and the ups and downs in the two and a half weeks since, that kind of talk has pretty much evaporated. It's been replaced by questions of whether the war, its aftermath or the economy on the home front will put the kibosh on something that could have been really big.

"It's a delicate question to ask, and a delicate question to answer. The war is first and foremost" in advertisers' minds, said a buyer who asked not to be identified. The buyer said it was still to be determined what kind of impact the war would have on the upfront but one thing was sure: It was putting into perspective what was real life and what was, well, television.

"It's had an enormous impact to date," the buyer said of the war in Iraq and the threat of terrorism in the United States. "Post Sept.-11, that's a constant concern of everybody's whether it's international or domestic. It's something that's generally become more top of mind," the buyer said.

Bruce Vanden Bergh, a professor of advertising at Michigan State University, said he's heard from industry sources that the upfront market would be only slightly ahead of last year's because of concerns of war and the economy.

"If the expectation was going to be a boom year, the expectation is that the war will dampen that," Vanden Bergh said. He said tensions at home and abroad cast long shadows on the television market.

"It feels surreal. It has this real strange, eerie feeling that things are kind of going along normal, and then you watch TV and the war is kind of interjected there and yet you're still watching Friends and American Idol," he noted.

Harry Keeshan, EVP of national broadcast at PhD in New York, said it's still to be determined how the war was going to impact the upfront.

"It depends on the economy. There are many factors that go into the economy and war is number one. What is the war affecting, how long is the war going to be, and what is the country's mood after the war, are certainly all important barometers as we try to gauge the strength" of the upfront advertising market, Keeshan said.

While the economy itself hasn't been doing all that well, Keeshan noted that the bad news hasn't really had a negative impact on the TV market. "At least we haven't seen it yet," Keeshan said. Automotive and entertainment spending is fueling the growth so far.

While he doesn't buy into the double-digit CPM increases that have been predicted, he isn't sure what's going to happen

"It's really too early to tell. There's still a lot of unknown variables. Certainly the momentum is there for a good market, not one that sides with the vendor," Keeshan said.

"There's so many variables that are going into this model right now that could change this in a day. Each week that goes by, hopefully the war will wrap up and we will be able to get a clearer picture," Keeshan said.