Predicting the future of anything could perhaps be better described as The Art of Being Wrong. The only real variables are the questions
of degree and direction. We all know no one can accurately predict the future -- unless it’s the
immediate future in which case it tends to be obvious to all. Anyone who claims to do so is either delusional or a snake oil salesman -- or both.
Once we come to terms with our inability to be wholly
accurate, then we can get on with the fun business of being wrong. That said, when contemplating any aspect of the future of media, it’s always helpful to take a look over one’s shoulder at recent
history.
Not because change always happens in a predictable and linear fashion -- or even at the same pace -- but because the clues for how things will evolve are always there. And they tend to
be anchored in the same fundamentals.
Unfortunately, when looking at the new, bright shiny objects that come our way at an ever-increasing pace (social networking, location-based marketing, touchscreens
and tablets, time-shifting), we tend to look at the function at the expense of wider considerations. In other words, we focus -- sometimes obsessively -- on what they can do rather than on
why people would want to change their behavior to adopt that functionality on a sustainable (profitable) basis.
Of course, this doesn’t always mean that things are doomed to a miserable and
prolonged demise, but it frequently accounts for why adoption takes longer and often plateaus sooner than generally expected. It does mean, however, that change only truly takes hold at the
pace that the prevailing circumstances give ground and allow for it.
What are these fundamentals that continue to have an influence on how media evolve and which we overlook all too easily when
considering the future? There are many -- price, for example -- but four I feel are the most important:
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A former chairman of mine once imparted words of wisdom that he jokingly declared were the Four Laws of Business:
His view was that if you could help answer that question for the consumer, the corporation or anyone else to whom the issue may apply, you were on your way to gaining
acceptance.
I would suggest that these “laws” not only apply to the factors listed above and their impact on the pace of change, but can help us as we try to gaze into the future -- with
the goal of being as close to not-wrong as we can be.
Well put, Mike.
Mike this is such a great column. It helps to explain everything from the dynamics of the enterprise software business to why television is not bought and sold like online advertising.