• by Paul Gough , August 1, 2003

Where are tomorrow's audiences headed? A new study says the best way to figure that out is by looking at where diverse audiences are in the media space right now.

There's a lot of talk and hand-wringing about media fragmentation, but it's not only media anymore. Willis G. Smith, principal of UrbanMarketsReport.com and author of the study, said today's audiences have become increasingly urban, diverse and technological. In a paper presented at the recent ESOMAR audience-measurement conference, Smith argues that the old ways of measurement aren't going to work today or in the future. In the words of an old Sly and the Family Stone album that lends its name to the study, there's a riot going on - and media people ignore it at their peril.

"If you want to look at what the audience of the future will be, there are audiences that are telling you that now," Smith says. "The answers are already in place and the behaviors are already in place. Oftentimes, we look in the traditional places. But the traditional audiences are changing."

He said that diverse audiences, particularly in urban areas, have been leading the mainstream in a number of trends, from fashion apparel to beverages to music and automobiles. It's happening in the media space, too.

Smith said his company's regular study, Urban Market Report: A Tapestry of Media & Life, has shown many instances of audience control over the media. He's found the phenomenon among diverse audiences really began to take off in the 1980s, when African Americans had trouble finding culturally relevant programming that resonated. It's been since then that African American audiences have had higher viewing indexes for television, subscription channels and pay-per-view for boxing and other content.

"Because there weren't as many culturally reflective or resonant programming choices, that diverse audiences had to be more active in the search for programming that was relevant," Smith said.

These patterns have also led to a new type of viewing, what Smith calls Social Viewing on Demand, or SVOD. People who don't have pay television like HBO or Showtime still see it by going to a family, friend or neighbor's house. But since only primary household members are tracked in current measurement, it's an audience that Smith says is often overlooked. The study estimates at least 3.3 million African, Asian and Hispanic Americans without broadband television had seen a pay channel within the past seven days.

The Urban Market Report has found that although foreign-born people who move to the United States are looking for culturally relevant information from the land they just left, they're also turning to cable to find about their new home, too. This includes The Weather Channel and TLC, which according to The Urban Marketing Report indexes highest among Hispanics.

"They're interested in keeping up with the culture they came from and the culture they've come into," Smith said.

He said that finding out about the audiences of tomorrow starts with looking at today's diverse audiences. For the answers to most of the questions, Smith said that diverse audiences - leading in categories like use of pay channels, pay per views, digital TV, high-speed data and cell phones, among others - are the place to look.

"People have been doing it, just not the people you may think. Or the ways you think they'd be doing it. Diverse audiences have been on the leading edge of [technology] adoption," Smith said. "They're used to it because they've always had to navigate."

The study can be found here. Smith's company can be found at www.urbanmarketreport.com.