• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, December 10, 2003

During a recent briefing for investment analysts and the business press, Robert Coen projected that total national ad spending will rise 5.2% to $153.06 billion in 2003, with network cable expected to advance 10% to $13.28 billion. The current issue of Universal McCann's Insider's Report highlights Mr. Coen's presentation at the conference. The report is prefaced by saying that in 2004 the U.S. economy should exhibit solid sustainable economic growth. A return to strong market competition across all products and services and for most types of marketing communications efforts is most likely. There will also be extra demand placed on the supply of media time and space by heavy political activity and the Summer Olympics.

Robert J. Coen, Senior Vice President, Director of Forecasting at Universal McCann, made these predictions on December 8, 2003 at the UBS Warburg Annual Media Week Conference in New York City.

Despite continued problems in Iraq and barring extreme terrorist activities, he says, we expect 2004 to be a very good year for U.S. advertising. We now forecast U.S. ad growth of 6.9% to $266.4 billion and we also look for improved advertising overseas with 2004 ad growth of 4.5%. Total worldwide advertising in 2004 is now projected for a gain of 5.8% to $498.3 billion.

Preliminary indications suggest that fourth quarter spending levels will be significantly better for most media than they were a year ago. National advertising should grow at a fairly respectable rate if fourth quarter spending lives up to advance indications.

2003 BUDGETS OF NATIONAL ADVERTISERS

National advertising should move up faster in 2004 because of the extra political activity and summer olympics promotions. The economy is moving into sustainable growth; company profits are moving back above pre-recession levels; and increased competition for expanding markets will further stimulate advertising spending in 2004.

NATIONAL ADVERTISING OUTLOOK FOR 2004

The outlook is for strong growth in total U.S. advertising expenditures next year. In 2004 we expect nominal Gross Domestic Product to grow by 5.8%, and we believe U.S. advertising will grow at least a percentage point faster than the economy. We now expect the grand total of local and national advertising expenditures to add up to $266.4 billion in 2004 for a forecasted increase of 6.9% over 2003

ALL ADVERTISERS OUTLOOK FOR 2004