• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, September 18, 2004

TV Advertising Flat in 2005, Up in 2006

The Television Bureau of Advertising released its forecast for the television industry's next two years at its annual Forecast Conference, as a webcast for most participants, but attended by about 50 broadcast executives at the Gannett headquarters in New York.

According to the report, TVB forecast Total Spot revenues in 2005 would fall in a range of -1% to + 1% in comparison with this year's revenues and up 7% to 9% in 2006. The full range of numbers for next year, according to TVB:

Local Spot	+2.0 to +4.0%
National Spot	- 4.0 to - 2.0%
TOTAL SPOT	-1.0 to +1.0%
Network	+2.0 to +3.0%
Syndication	+5.0 to +6.0%
Network Cable	+8.0 to +9.0%
Local Cable	+7.0 to +9.0%

TVB said key categories to watch in 2005 included automotive, telecommunications, pharmaceutical, financial services/credit cards, and issue advertising.

TVB President Chris Rohrs said "The structure of the business has changed dramatically because of the Olympics switching to a two-year frequency and because of the growth of political advertising in Spot. Odd years will always face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and political ads show up. Spot TV is a two-year business cycle."

TVB's predictions for 2006 were as follows:

Local Spot	+4.0 to +6.0%
National Spot	+10.0 to +14.0%
TOTAL SPOT	+7.0 to +9.0%
Network	+4.0 to +5.0%
Syndication	+5.0 to +6.0%
Network Cable	+9.0 to +10.0%
Local Cable	+6.0 to +8.0%

TVB estimates, which are derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research, represent national averages. Individual firms and stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including market size, region of the country, and affiliation.

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